this post was submitted on 19 May 2025
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and the run-off in 2024 would be Trump versus Harris, and in 1992, Bush versus Clinton.
If we assume the first round goes the same, but without a spoiler effect third parties would do better in the first round.
IIUC, in neither the 1992 nor 2024 Presidential elections did a candidate win a (popular) majority.
If those who voted for Perot instead voted for Clinton, Clinton would still have been elected, probably with a majority. If they voted for Bush, then he'd been elected, probably with a majority, and those-more-left-wing-than-Republicans would have been (more) disappointed.
If those who voted for 3rd parties last year instead voted for Harris, she still would have lost the first round, including Michigan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election#Results_by_state ). I doubt she would have won the run-off.
I suppose run-offs are interesting when there are strong 3rd party candidates. As this is not currently the case in the USA, it'd mean little—the 2 party-state continues (and multi-millionaire Democrats would still complain about Stein, Greens, and/or other alternative parties).