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There is no "pivot to asia" for the EU. They actively do not want to participate in fighting China with the US. They see China as their ticket away from vassalisation by the US.
I strongly disagree with this analysis. You're looking at the EU and US as permanent partners arm in arm when I believe the correct analysis here is that they are more likely to do a capitalist equivalent of the sino-soviet split.
EU will (already is) cozying up to China to escape US vassalisation. They will deepen those ties rather than participate in attacking China.
By the time Europe is in any position to do anything about China 30 years will have passed and the entire continent will be developed by belt and road initiatives and high speed rail tying together Russia, China, the Middle East and Africa into one cohesive land-based trade sector that is tied to China in a way that can never be removed.
All that needs to occur in the meantime is for EU to split with the US and want to build itself up to get out of vassalisation. That project will take so many decades of playing nicely with China that it will hand over the future of the entire landmass to it.
I think this is a far sunnier depiction of Europe than the material reality and historical record allows to be tenably held. It's worth going back to interrogate the sheer history of the notion. The idea of a scenario of inter-imperialist rivalry within the West posed by a resurgent Europe against America, to the benefit of the Global South, traces back all the way back to the immediate post-war period. Stalin himself speculated that:
Stalin was wrong because World War II turned out to remain the last inter-imperialist war within the West up to today.
Europe's fundamental problem is that it has never been held accountable for the original sin of 500 years of colonialism and imperialism. Rather than facing any retribution, it has been rewarded. The continent has managed to retain the material wealth gained through its imperial past, and even now, it continues to benefit from neo-colonial economic structures that give subsidy to its luxury through the continued unequal exchange with the rest of the world.
On the other hand, the only thing it really ever has been punished for is the cautionary lesson of inter-imperialist infighting when Europe turned its guns against itself. The lesson Europe took from the 20th century, and continues to hold today, is this: karma hasn't ever punished its external violence, but it strikes if it turns on itself. Europe was the victor of history—until the victors began fighting among themselves.
This is the etiological source of its cultural and racial alignment with Western hegemony. It's a self-perpetuating cyclical logic that was only broken through the alternative presented through socialist internationalism that provided a different narrative of Europe that allowed coexistence and solidarity with the rest of the world beyond the now increasingly bankrupt paper facade of liberal "internationalism." Socialist internationalism (though itself insincere at times) offered Europeans, the first time, a way to reimagine our identity beyond the deeply entrenched cultural and racial divide of "the West and the rest," a paradigm that had shaped the idea of "Europe" for centuries, if not millennia.
Incidentally, as a result, this is a contributing factor to why the entirety of all Eastern European states, as if eager to make up for lost time now that they're in the club, have become uniformly some of the most ideologically extreme and right-wing chauvinistic freaks within Western hegemony today.
Lenin’s prediction of inter-imperialist infighting only came to pass once, during WWII, and hasn’t happened again since. Europe does learn lessons but the wrong ones. Stalin’s succession to Khrushchev meant the USSR never updated Lenin and Stalin’s analysis, which led to the policy of "peaceful coexistence." This approach utterly failed to account for the solidarity among imperialist powers under Western hegemony, which ultimately contributed to the Soviet Union’s collapse.
The plain reality from the history of post-war inter-imperialist solidarity, for which the USSR already paid the price, should indicate that unless the original sin of our continent is addressed in one way or another, Europe will never be a protagonist of any scenario of multipolarity against the existing hegemonic paradigm. If it had the chance, Europe would happily loot China alongside the US just as it did in the Opium Wars and the Boxer Uprising. It doesn't do so today not because of a lack of any will, but a lack of capacity and capability. Unless it discovers a new narrative of its identity, as it did once through socialist internationalism, the rest of the world should prevent it from ever regaining that capability - and should reject as realistic any notion of an "independent Europe" willing to repudiate Western hegemony.
True enough. But in Stalin's time EU policy institutions weren't churning out ream after ream of "we're being vassalised (already have) and need to do something about it".
Nor was this accompanied by the very clear indicator that the EU is genuinely cozying up to China. It's not clear in the public eye although it's obvious that propaganda outlets have stopped doing anti-China content, but the quieter behind the scenes stuff is making it very clear they want to be closer.
The EU is stuck. It either fully vassalises, something that will result in a nationalist anti-US reactionary takeover that leads to conflict in Europe, or it gets closer to China. Those are the options. Closer Russia ties is obviously off the table right now but that's what they were doing prior to this war breaking out, even up to the very very start of the war Europe was still working on closer ties to Russia.
And if you think the above policy institute isn't still worrying about sovereignty, here is their take on Merz 10 days ago: https://ecfr.eu/article/from-fence-sitter-to-pace-setter-how-merzs-germany-can-lead-europe/
The very final point of it is their concern about sovereignty.
It is the primary concern of EU policy tanks right now. Every single thing they do is filtering through "how do we maintain sovereignty" and a "the US is untrustworthy".
China is not a threat to sovereignty, we know this and so does everyone in Europe. Europe IS going to get closer and closer to China in a bid to escape vassalisation. It's not a theory it's actively what they are already doing. Trump even gave them excuses to accelerate it with the Tariff bullshit, European sentiment to China took a big boost especially when they didn't back down one bit, population views them as a necessary partner: https://ip-quarterly.com/en/what-europe-thinks-about-china-2025
All China has to do is handle their relationship with EU as well as they've handled Taiwan and things will improve. China is the only way.
Perhaps we are yin and yang on this matter. I am optimistic and you are pessimistic. I agree that it could go one of either of these directions and we seem to both agree on the possible directions, merely sitting on different sides as to what the final outcome might be. My opinion is that EU will do as it does, turtle along bureaucratically for 30 years pursuing a de-vassalisation strategy. The alternative is far riskier.