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this post was submitted on 07 Apr 2025
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This shit is going down today. There are three possibilities:
If they don't get a stay and they make some kind of half hearted "bad man Bukele won't cooperate" argument, I don't think Xinis will buy that, and they'll be back to #3.
Psst. Justice Roberts granted the stay.
Americans and America are fucked that much more.
Yeah. All by himself too; did not refer to the rest of the court. And his order appeared after the plaintiff filed the response that was requested.
The US is paying them to house those prisoners though, which makes it harder to pass the buck onto Bukele. Not to say they won’t try that argument, but this isn’t just a situation of us dropping him off and saying bye.
Agree with what you say, was just pointing out that the 6 million payment gives US courts a little more leverage over holding Trump to bring them back. Assuming the SC doesn’t just punt it anyways.
If they managed to get Bukele to make such a statement, and they got it into the district court record, I would guess that Xinis would back off and not press contempt.
If I had to predict the supreme court on this pending appeal, I'm going with 7-2 to deny the stay, with Thomas and Alito dissenting.
This case is moving so fast because the DOJ career lawyer basically conceded the government's entire case at the hearing last week. The normal rule is that you can't introduce evidence and arguments on appeal if you didn't raise them at the district court. The government is now furiously trying to bypass that in these appeals.
So I think some of the conservative justices will be upset with that, and they will also not want to concede power from the courts to the executive branch. They want that power for themselves.
Has Bukele said this? Has the administration made any attempt to return him?
It is possible that they will stonewall, but it is important to force them to do so rather than obeying in advance.
100% agree that really the supreme Court's decision here is likely to determine how much longer the horrors last.
If things go well, this won't last more than 4 years.
If things go poorly this could be the end of the free world as we know it.
Thankfully, there are two other options in this game theory square that both offer a glimmer of hope even if they suggest a period of darkness.
Edit: the supreme court paused the decision. This represents one of the "other two options" in this game theory square. It's not ideal, but there's still a path forward.
Hastening the slide? We're already there. Everything now is just damage control.