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this post was submitted on 18 Mar 2025
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The wise ones sold as much stock as possible.
Tesla stock is most likely to drop way more. Global sales being down about 50% for February, demands the stock must fall even more.
Even corrupt government contracts can't compensate for the loss of global marketshare every Musk nut was so convinced would increase to a degree where Tesla would be bigger than all other car companies combined.
The stock price was always ridiculously high, and it still is.
The P/E ratio is off the charts. Things will get really interesting after the Q1 earnings call on April 29th.
https://www.financecharts.com/compare/TSLA,TM/value/pe-ratio
So uh... Toyota's PE is almost 8, a bit down from its historical average of about 9 or 10.
Tesla's is currently about 115.
Down almost 50% from its highs around 200 during Jan 2025.
If Tesla's actual $$$ stock/share value dropped down to ... lets say a PE of 10... that would be... well ok it is currently still dropping rather rapidly, but lets say rightnnow its $225 per share.
If Tesla 'corrected' to a PE of 10, that's a share value of about $19.57.
About a 91% drop from where it is right now...
... which would wipe out around $700 billion of market cap.
These are ballpark figures based on a hypothetical scenario, this is not financial advice, but yeah, that is a way of looking at how overvalued Tesla is (or could be).
EDIT: Musk himself apparently owns about 410 million Tesla shares, as of Feb 2025.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/insights/052616/top-4-tesla-shareholders-tsla.asp
So... a 91% reduction of 410m shares * $225 per share...
That would be a personal loss for Musk of about $82 billion, from this exact moment.
That'd put his net worth at about $273b, based on him having a net worth of $355b as of Feb 2025... but his net worth may already be significantly less than $355b, because Tesla has dropped a lot between the date of the source I've found for his net worth, and right now.
EDIT 2
https://www.forbes.com/profile/elon-musk/?list=rtb%2F&sh=7123ba5d7999
Uh wow yeah, ok, between Feb 28 2025 and Mar 18 2025, he's already lost about $34 billion... and is currently at $321 billion.
So... if you take $82 b out of $321, then he's down to around $240 ish.
Sadly... he would be the richest person in the world, even after that, he'd have to get below $210b ish to sink to #2 under Bezos, below about $200b to be #3, also under Zucky boy.
And all this is without even taking into account the fall of the Earnings side of the P/E.
If Tesla sales keep falling that "correct" P/E or 10 won't be $19.57, it will be a lower number that keeps on falling along with the fall in sales because less sales means less earnings.
Even better: like all automakers Tesla has a lot of fixed capital costs which can't be easily shrinked (factories, equipment) so the fall in sales might actually push them below profitability since they will only be able to reduce costs in the short and mid term up to a point (it take time to sell a factory and the equipment in it)
If the company becomes unprofitable, it will need money from outside to keep going, and in an environment of quickly falling share prices that money is not going to come from outside investors and getting it from lenders using Tesla's own stock as collateral will be very difficult if not impossible.
A fast enough fall in sales right alongside a steep fall in stock price could bankrupt Tesla.
Oh, oh, I know this one! The answer is "a government bailout!"
Correct!
My hypothetical is greatly oversimplified... in a way that is arguably optimistic.
All very good other points to add... I've got a slowly healing but fucked up wrist/hand, so I can only type so much.