this post was submitted on 21 Feb 2025
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The Supreme Court is the arbiter, and while the court CAN overturn itself, as it did with Roe, it takes 50 years and a concerted effort by the Presidents and Senate to change the composition of the Court.
Since Heller, the Court has only become MORE conservative, not less, so the opinions on gun rights and the 2nd amendment aren't going to change any time soon.
We saw it again with Bruen in 2022 where the Court gave the test by which all gun laws should be judged:
https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/597/20-843/
"Today, we decline to adopt that two-part approach. In keeping with Heller, we hold that when the Second Amendment’s plain text covers an individual’s conduct, the Constitution presumptively protects that conduct. To justify its regulation, the government may not simply posit that the regulation promotes an important interest. Rather, the government must demonstrate that the regulation is consistent with this Nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation. Only if a firearm regulation is consistent with this Nation’s historical tradition may a court conclude that the individual’s conduct falls outside the Second Amendment’s “unqualified command.” Konigsberg v. State Bar of Cal., 366 U.S. 36, 50, n. 10 (1961).[3]"
Which does not bode well for California this year when the Supreme Court takes up the ban on AR-15s and magazines with more than 10 rounds.
https://firearmslaw.duke.edu/2024/11/an-update-on-challenges-to-state-assault-weapon-and-magazine-bans
Snope vs. Brown will be the next one to watch:
https://www.scotusblog.com/case-files/cases/snope-v-brown/
And that's why it's not "gun ownership is guaranteed by constitution" but "gun ownership is guaranteed by the recent decision of 9 unelected people, but actually less than that, some of then were against it".
All it takes is a majority ruling to set the precedent, and they have done so four separate times now.
June is going to probably be another heartbreaker for folks expecting the court to suddenly swerve left.
Precedents also stopped being relevant. Forget stare decisis, they don't even pretend to care about some kind of rule of law altogether, they gave a president an unlimited indulgence for fucks sake, all that legal bullshit is just a game for nerds now
Stopped being relevant because the court swung ultra right wing.
Since Roe vs. Wade in 1973, there have been 16 judges appointed to the court. 11 appointed by Republicans, only 5 by Democrats.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/members_text.aspx
To reverse that action, it will take another 51 years and more Democratic than Republican appointees.
Look at the current court.
3/9 members appointed by Trump. It's highly likely he will make Thomas and Alito a deal to retire just like he did with Kennedy. Once they are out that will give us a 5/9 Trump court for the rest of our lifetimes.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/06/donald-trump-justice-anthony-kennedy-retirement