this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2024
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A few questions for the study:
What's the data source? If they're just doing news reports and traditional history that can hide a lot of failed non-violent protests. A non violent protest, especially one against the medias interests, is way less likely to show up in the historical record then a violent insurrection. Only the successful movements like the civil rights movement will get mentioned on the non-violent side whereas every insurrection or riot, successful or not, is captured in the historical record.
What's the breakdown by method? It seems they're including strikes in this which has a very high success rate and high occurrence, so much so it could drown out all the failed protests.
The book's methodologies: https://www.ericachenoweth.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/WCRW-Appendix.pdf
The data set:
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=doi%3A10.7910%2FDVN%2FMHOXDV