this post was submitted on 08 Nov 2024
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[–] [email protected] 22 points 4 days ago (7 children)

Your numbers are incorrect.

Men: Harris 42%, Trump 55%

Women: Harris 53%, Trump 45%

It was a 20% swing in gender.

Black people are a large exception to the gender demographics. Black men voted 77% for Harris, and Black women 91%. It’s possible the comments you’re seeing about men are intended to be directed at white men who influenced the results over every other sex and race with 60% support for Trump and 34% of the total vote.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/exit-polls

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 days ago (5 children)

My data is from AP https://apnews.com/article/trump-harris-gender-gap-votecast-05672b6426cb5965c446ae2871d97eaf

I have no idea what you mean by "20% swing in gender." There's an 8% gap between men and women supporting Trump, and the AP said: "the gender voting gap was unremarkable by recent historical standards."

Also, AP reported that Biden had 55% of the women vote, meaning that the gender gap today is narrower than the 2020 election.

"Harris had the advantage among women, winning 53% to Trump’s 46%, but that margin was somewhat narrower than President Joe Biden’s in 2020, according to the survey. In 2020, VoteCast showed Biden won 55% of women"

[–] [email protected] -1 points 4 days ago* (last edited 4 days ago) (4 children)

The swing is determined by adding the difference from both sexes.

55-42=13% more men voted for Trump than Harris

53-45=8% more women voted for Harris than Trump

13+8=21% swing from men to women

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 days ago (1 children)

Just to explain why people are confused:

If it were 100% of men voting Trump, and 100% of women voting Harris, your math would give a 200% swing, so you're essentially double counting. Divide by 2 to get the actual swing %.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_(politics)

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 days ago

You’re right. My mistake. Thanks for the link!

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