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Considering last night's results, I don't expect NATO to be credible 4 years from now
(sh.itjust.works)
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Yes, antimissile systems will shoot down most of your missile volley, so you need to launch enough that they become overwhelmed and the few that make it through accomplish your goal.
We don't know exactly how much "most" is, but its enough that the powers that be consider our current level of armament to be necessary.
Shooting down a nuclear icbm doesn't really help as much as you think, if it catches it.
Not to mention the atmosphere lighting up wouldn't be much better
You know they don't go critical when you shoot them right?