It’s a major wave now, with an estimated new 900,000 infections per day, as my friend Jay Weiland estimated based on the 2 sources of US wastewater data (definitely worth following him at X or Threads). The slope of rise of SARS-CoV-2 levels is still steep, so we haven’t yet reached the plateau. It’s already towered beyond 4 prior waves of the US pandemic.

State-of-the-Wave

It’s related to the variants KP.3 and KP.3.1.1, which together now account for more than half of new cases in the US. And KP.3.1.1 is on the move, overtaking KP.3 as shown by the new CDC data below. A big jump in the past 2 weeks.

Fortunately, the rise in levels of the virus, still going up in all 4 major US regions (most recent CDC data below) has not been linked with as much severe Covid (absolute increase) as was seen in prior waves, but compared to last week there was a relative increase of 25% of deaths and 12% increase in emergency room visits due to Covid. No matter how you look at it, this is not a benign wave, folks.

God's plan I guess. It's brunch time.