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Update: The parties of the left coalition have publicly reaffirmed their commitment to the coalition, sending a message to Macron that they will not govern under the liberals
this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2024
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I hate to be a downer but... It is good and valuable that the fash didn't do as well as all the talking heads on TV predicted/hoped. It is also good that the centre-left coalition is the largest block, ahead of the various reactionary ones.
But... but... We are celebrating that the "left", and by left we include succdems and libs, got roughly a third of the seats in parliament. That the left, by the widest possible definition of the term, is a minority.
I don't know French politics but I know centrist liberals. They might be mad about the fash eating their lunch but ultimately they are going to follow the class interest they represent and side with the fash against the left, especially if the fash offers to support a liberal government in return for crackdowns on those deemed inferior.
Sweden used to be the prime example of "good liberals" with the succdems and the "respectable" right agreeing to keep the fascist SD party away from all influence. But in the end the temptation grew too big and now Sweden is ruled by a right-wing regime supported by the fash.
I will be surprised if the "respectable" French centre-right doesn't end up doing something similar in the end.
I think RN/Ensemble coalition is unworkable, at least right now. Macron's brand is staked too much in being the safeguard against the fascists, and I don't see RN having any reason to hitch themselves to what has been a very unpopular administration. At the very least, these results mean that if either Macron or RN wants a functional right-wing government, the political costs are going to be severe.
but allying with centrist party tanks the ideological party, so the danger is in npf working with ensemble, and tanking its support by doing grown-up realistic compromises