Oh so this guy fucking sucks eggs

Trump freed Binance fraudster, SBF pardon futures mooning rn

I need to lurk more, feel like I missed some good drama 🍿

Last week on, "Please do not build the torment nexus"

No, it never works out in the movies, I mean somehow these poor delusional humans convince themselves that they can control the kill bots...

Gork is this true?

https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=9183

Quantum scoot is quantum spooked 😱 after GPT-5 manages to solve a subproblem for him (after multiple attempts), thanks the powers that be for his tenure!

… even though GPT-5 probably generates the answer via websearch

Great piece on previous hype waves by P. Ball

https://aeon.co/essays/no-suffering-no-death-no-limits-the-nanobots-pipe-dream

It’s sad, my “thoroughly researched” “paper” greygoo-2027 just doesn’t seem to have that viral x-factor that lands me exclusive interviews w/ the Times 🫠

Gary asks the doomers, are you “feeling the agi” now kids?

To which Daniel K, our favorite guru lets us know that he has officially ~~moved his goal posts~~ updated his timeline so now the robogod doesnt wipe us out until the year of our lorde 2029.

It takes a big brain superforecaster to have to admit your four month old rapture prophecy was already off by at least 2 years omegalul

Also, love: updating towards my teammate (lmaou) who cowrote the manifesto but is now saying he never believed it. “The forecasts that don’t come true were just pranks bro, check my manifold score bro, im def capable of future sight, trust”

https://www.wired.com/story/openworm-worm-simulator-biology-code/

Really interesting piece about how difficult it actually is to simulate "simple" biological structures in silicon.

It's kind of telling that it's only been a couple months since that fan fic was published and there is already so much defensive posturing from the LW/EA community. I swear the people who were sharing it when it dropped and tacitly endorsing it as the vision of the future from certified prophet Daniel K are like, "oh it's directionally correct, but too aggressive" Note that we are over halfway through 2025 and the earliest prediction of agents entering the work force is already fucked. So if you are a 'super forecaster' (guru) you can do some sleight of hand now to come out against the model knowing the first goal post was already missed and the tower of conditional probabilities that rest on it is already breaking.

Funniest part is even one of authors themselves seem to be panicking too as even they can tell they are losing the crowd and is falling back on this "It's not the most likely future, it's the just the most probable." A truly meaningless statement if your goal is to guide policy since events with arbitrarily low probability density can still be the "most probable" given enough different outcomes.

Also, there's literally mass brain uploading in AI-2027. This strikes me as physically impossible in any meaningful way in the sense that the compute to model all molecular interactions in a brain would take a really, really, really big computer. But I understand if your religious beliefs and cultural convictions necessitate big snake 🐍 to upload you, then I will refrain from passing judgement.

To be clear, I strongly disagree with the claim. I haven't seen any evidence that "reasoning" models actually address any of the core blocking issues- especially reliably working within a given set of constraints/being dependable enough to perform symbolic algorithms/or any serious solution to confabulations. I'm just not going to waste my time with curve pointers who want to die on the hill of NeW sCaLiNG pArAdIgM. They are just too deep in the kool-aid at this point.

An interesting takedown of "superforecasting" from Ben Recht, a 3 part series on his substack where he accuses so called super forecasters of abusing scoring rewards over actually being precogs. First (and least technical) part linked below...

https://www.argmin.net/p/in-defense-of-defensive-forecasting

"The term Defensive Forecasting was coined by Vladimir Vovk, Akimichi Takemura, and Glenn Shafer in a brilliant 2005 paper, crystallizing a general view of decision making that dates back to Abraham Wald. Wald envisions decision making as a game. The two players are the decision maker and Nature, who are in a heated duel. The decision maker wants to choose actions that yield good outcomes no matter what the adversarial Nature chooses to do. Forecasting is a simplified version of this game, where the decisions made have no particular impact and the goal is simply to guess which move Nature will play. Importantly, the forecaster’s goal is not to never be wrong, but instead to be less wrong than everyone else.*

*Yes, I see what I did there."