Thats actually a really good dilemma if you think about it. Like if everyone doubles it you basically don’t kill anyone. But you’ll always risk that there’s some psycho who likes killing and then you will have killed more. And if these choices continue endlessly you will eventually find someone like this. So killing immediately should be the right thing to do.
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You gotta double it until it overflows to negatives, then you end up reviving billions of people!
Continuously double it so that the trolley has as much room as it needs to brake to a complete halt, therefore killing 0 people.
The real questions are, "Who is fueling and piloting the trolly, and can we kill them?"
Math-wise, it won't take long until they are tied to the track with us and everyone else.
Welcome to climate policy.
That implies that if nobody tries to stop climate change, it'll never destroy the world.
If I must kill 1 person or cause even more death, I suppose I'd kill the person responsible for this scenario.
Oh, 100%. Fuck the next generation, I mean person.
Double it. Then the other guy will double it, and so on. Infinite loop = no deaths.
Or straight up 8 billion
And then there's some psycho on round 34 who kills all 8 billion people alive on earth.
Loop continues until entire human population tied to track and there's nobody left to pass the switch to. kill the scapegoat on round one and done
You would need a crazy low probability of a lunatic or a mass murderer being down the line to justify not to kill one person
Edit: Sum(2^n (1-p)^(n-1) p) ~ Sum(2^n p) for p small. So you'd need a p= (2×2^32 -2) ~ 1/(8 billion) chance of catching a psycho for expected values to be equal. I.e. there is only a single person tops who would decide to kill all on earth.
You don't even need a lunatic or mass murderer. As you say, the logical choice is to kill one person. For the next person, the logical choice is to kill two people, and so on.
It does create the funny paradox where, up to a certain point, a rational utilitarian would choose to kill and a rational mass murderer trying to maximise deaths would choose to double it.
Well what about the fact that after 34 people the entire population is tied to the tracks. What are the chances that one person out of 35 wants to destroy humanity?
Also thing the entire human population to the tracks is going to cause some major logistical problems, how are you going to feed them all?
I just calculated the sum from n=0 to 32 (because 2^33>current global population). And that calculation implies that the chance of catching someone willing to kill all of humanity would have to be lower than 1/8 billion for the expected value of doubling it to be larger than just killing one person.
Seems like exactly what politicians are doing. Pass the problems along to the next one.
I was gonna just do the one but they do say it's best to pay it forward when you can.
Throw the switch to pass and then sprint ahead 31 spots so I can kill 4 billion people like Thanos.
People always miss the bigger picture with these things. Why do these trolleys' brakes keep failing? Is it a design flaw in the braking system? Is the maintenance crew severely underfunded? Is it a slippage problem due to improper rail maintenance? It's a shame we can't even organize a work stoppage to sort this out since congress blocked the trolley union from striking...
Lever half way and it crashes.
Attempting to subvert the thought experiment only makes things worse. The trolley is full of child prodigies, all future geniuses that will cure cancer and solve the world's problems. By sticking the lever halfway you kill all of them. The only way to save the child prodigies is to choose, left or right.
Also interesting: What would you choose here if you were an evil psychopath? (Asking for an acquaintance.)
Switch the track from the bottom to the top as the train is half way over the switch, causing the train to drift across both rails hitting all three tied up people and the second switch operator.
Kill 1 person. I feel it would be cowardly to pass the buck and risk killing 2.
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