Funny thing is no matter how much the western media tries to label it as such, the AFU's SNAFU of a counter-offensive wasn't a counter-offensive because there was no ongoing offensive to counter.
What can be called a counter-offensive is exactly what the Russians are doing.
The Ardennes Offensive, which is analogous to what the AFU is trying to do, and Operation Zitadelle were written off far before they reached the 2 month mark.
Exactly, it was a just a poorly thought out offensive that made the underlying assumption that Russian army is weak and can be easily routed by a big show of force. The parallels between this and Ardennes Offensive are surprisingly close. I think this really could be the turning point of the war where it starts becoming clear that Ukraine will lose even in the eyes of western public. Once it becomes impossible to hide that Ukraine is not actually advancing while Russia is, then western support for the war will start collapsing. At that point it's going to become much harder to send unlimited money and equipment to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian economy is effectively non existent at this point with US footing the bill for pretty much all of public sector at this point. Ukraine obviously isn't capable of doing any serious manufacturing of their own, and it's not possible for them to sustain any serious war effort independently. As the tap starts running dry, I expect we'll see a rapid collapse happen.
There are also increasing suggestions that this is starting to sink in for western leadership. Petr Pavel, who used to be a NATO general and is now Czech president, said that Ukraine has six months recently. That's likely the most optimistic scenario.
It's also pretty clear that this isn't going to be some sort of a frozen conflict as western media is increasingly trying to paint it. Once Ukrainian army exhausts its offensive capacity, which is likely to happen within next couple of months, then Russia will obviously start doing offensive action of their own against a depleted and demoralized army.
This is pretty much how i see it too.
Completely right. Here is a German article saying "it was badly planned". https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-verlauf-gegenoffensive-gady-100.html
I think it's funny how they keep saying that Ukrainian offensive is "running slowly but steadily", but there hasn't actually been more than a few hundred meters progress anywhere after two months of fighting. They literally failed to reach the first defence line. That's not progress, that's just Ukrainian army banging its head against a wall. Sometimes a few chips of paint fall off.
Yepp. I always hate seeing this "Ukraine strong" narrative in German media. No honest voice seems to able to speak up. Well at least till yesterday when the article I shared popped up. Let's see if the opinion changes.
I fully expect there's going to be a narrative collapse once the offensive burns out.