I'm going to predict that Labour win in Uxbridge, the Lib Dems win Somerton but the Conservatives hold on in Selby.
I've not put any money on this, of course. I'm not mad. π
this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2023
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My understanding on the grapevine is that Labour are fairly confident in Selby, but a little more nervous in Uxbridge despite the small majority (due to ULEZ drama, specifically). But that's just the rumour mill, and I guess we'll find out tomorrow. The latter is possibly just a case of candidatitis.
My bet is that the Tories lose all 3, and not even by a small margin.
I donβt think I could predict the actions of a constituency that repeatedly, over several years and multiple elections, voted for Boris Johnson. Uxbridge has to be a toss up.
Wise words in the end. How they could vote for the Tories after how poorly they were treated by Boris is beyond me, but then they voted him back in so...
put your play money where your mouth is. I happen to agree with you.
https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/20th-july-byelections-how-many-seat?r=VGFnZ2Vy
I think the ULEZ chat is expectation management from Labour, for if they win by less than they would have hoped to be convincing and to drive a narrative, especially if Selby is a nail biter. But then 1000 seats was expectation management by the tories inthe local elections and look how that went
What about play money? https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/20th-july-byelections-how-many-seat?r=VGFnZ2Vy
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