It was actually one of their main points they Kamala wants to start world war 3. Iran was a huge part of the election campaign in 2024.

Vote democrat -> war with Iran and world war 3

Vote Republican -> no new wars, wars will end

This and cost of living with that beautiful word groceries were central to the campaign.

My grocery bills are double what they were in 2019 now

Rocket Mortgage has a commercial that shows some schlub walking into his house with his groceries while the voiceover says something about how those three bags of groceries used to be six. Then the house starts talking to him, reminding him that he can cash in the tiny amount of equity he has in the house with a second mortgage and use the money to buy groceries. Happy schlub dances the rest of the way into the house.

It must be hundreds of thousands of people that have been conned by this one commercial alone into thinking that going into debt to buy groceries is a solution to their problems.

Bingo, at one point in my career I doubled my salary by interviewing for a new position.

I counter offered and they matched, I was literally sweating when waiting for the response. I thought finally my financial issues are over. I was born into poverty, in my family I was the first to graduate highschool let alone go to college.

Here we are 5 years later and I’ve slowly found myself in the same position as then. Except now there is no larger salary jump to be made because AI has fucked up the job market so bad, even getting into interviews is nightmare for a higher paying job, despite being fully qualified.

Worked hard my entire life just to end up with basically the same financial hardships I had 15 years ago.

My brother's in-laws last winter were paying almost $2000 a month to heat their (overly large and mostly uninsulated) old house with oil. I can't even imagine how crushing this winter is going to be for them.

Now, I don’t know for how long those price increases will persist

Years. We're not getting out of Iran for years. There's no reason to think this forever war is going to be any different than the forever wars of the past, because remember, the Democratic majority's response when they had the opportunity to vote against it was: "Welp, we're in it, so now we have to fund it."

And the billionaire oil barons and war profiteers are making the decision makers generationally wealthy.

If the disruption is temporary, it’s bad.

High prices will massively incentivize expanding fossil fuel production, which is exactly what is happening worldwide.

But the oil wells in the Middle East haven’t gone away. That oil will still make it to the atmosphere, sooner or later, and we will end up with an expanded production capacity.

Additionally, war is a terrible emitter.

Your scenarios aren’t wrong, but thing is they are all just temporary symptoms. The oil crises would need to be sustained, indefinitely, to stop those reduced consumption patterns from rebounding.

Trump's Green New Deal will force yankees to switch to electric.