The average life expectancy for a Russian soldier in Ukraine is between 20-30 minutes, CIA director John Ratcliffe said. Speaking at a defense summit in Pennsylvania, he attributed the deadly conditions for Vladimir Putin's forces to Ukraine's combat drones equipped with AI. "What I would say is, our intelligence is consistent with some of the open-source reporting you may have seen in Ukraine," Ratcliffe said.  "So the average life expectancy of a Russian recruit, right now, arriving on the battlefield in Ukraine, is estimated to be between 20 and 30 minutes." "And that's because AI-powered drones have gotten to be such specialized, low-cost killing machines. And it's why we're now four and a half years into that conflict," Ratcliffe added. Ukraine said this month that Russia has lost about 1.4 million soldiers since the beginning of its full-scale invasion, with over 1,000 of the Kremlin's troops killed or wounded almost every day.  In May, Ukraine's defense ministry said it was killing roughly 200 Russian soldiers for every kilometer of territory that Moscow claimed.

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[–] 148 points 3 months ago (37 children)

It's not just flying drones.

I saw video of Ukraine using three tracked ground drones with machine guns in concert with multiple flying drones used to launch rockets to clear a house.

Russians were firing as they fled, but it literally doesn't matter if you shoot a land drone, they're mini tanks.

If/when AI is really running that shit, the oligarchs will stop pretending they think we're the same species.

Do people realize how fucked we'd be right now if the US army was just machines who would follow any order incapable of disobeying?

Even if we had a utopian government guaranteed to always be just, someone could just hack it.

We need to make use/development of AI like this a major war crime while we still can.

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  • [–] 74 points 3 months ago (14 children)

    Here's another worry. Once the war is over regardless of who wins you now have a large number of people specialized in drone warfare re-entering civilian life.

    Going by previous wars over many years some of them will inevitably go down the mercanary route and sell those skills to the highest bidder.

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  • [–] 47 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    That's why the west should step up its support to Ukraine once the war stops. All those veterans need proper care, need to be reintegrated. Need to feel seen and heard. Otherwise you'll have a bunch of unstable personalities with a lot of knowledge on how to kill people.

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  • [–] 23 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    I saw another video of a robot "ultimate fighting league" recently with humanoid bots.

    The two clankers went for 100% roundhouse kicks and missed almost everytime, but when they fell down?

    It didn't look real, they were back on their feet perfectly in milliseconds. It was clear the kicks was just the only scripted move, but these bots have picked themselves up off the ground probably millions of times. So that's the only thing they currently excel at.

    Eventually they're gonna be straight up ninjas.

    It's fucking stupid to wait until we can't beat them to try and outlaw them. We need to act now before the oligarchs literally have an army of terminators.

    We need to outlaw the bots and fix wealth inequality while we still have the numbers.

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  • [–] 10 points 3 months ago* (3 children)

    Once the war is over regardless of who wins you now have a large number of people specialized in drone warfare re-entering civilian life.

    We're already seeing this technology pop up throughout Iran, across Africa, and among both state and guerrilla fighters in the South Pacific. For all the lauding of Ukraine, the folks who are really making the most of this are Houthis and what's left of the Wagner Group.

    One of the ironies of this conflict is how many of these smaller militias are running circles around Silicon Valley tech firms - your Andurils and Mithrils and Raytheons and Northrop Grummonds. The Pentagon is spending a cool milly a unit to send up Reaper Drones that get knocked out by some particularly clever goat farmers with $200 in parts from Temu and a bootleg Starlink subscription.

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    [–] 121 points 3 months ago (34 children)

    This is good news for Ukraine

    This is godawful news for humanity. I fucking guarantee you that drones like these will later be used against citizens and innocent people

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  • [–] 32 points 3 months ago (23 children)

    I'm pretty surprised we haven't seen any assassinations of public figures using quadcopters yet.

    These things are almost as easy to obtain and weaponize as a rifle.

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  • [–] 21 points 3 months ago* (18 children)

    It's a lot easier to sight a drone one a clear day when a vip is giving a speech then it is to sight a drone 24/7 during active conflict.

    It's a lot easier to jam a single drone that a nobody can buy then it is to jam a swam of drones you need a defense budget to buy.

    You can spot anti-drone personal carrying HERF(high energy radio frequency) guns at major public events nowadays if you know what to look for. The simplest concept just throws enough RF static in the air to make the drone loose connection to the operator.

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    [–] 47 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    The source of this claim is a tiny anonymous telegram channel, that was then cited by NY Post, which was then presumably quoted by Ratcliffe.

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    [–] 40 points 3 months ago (3 children)

    Keep in mind this statement is coming from Trump's CIA.

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  • [–] 36 points 3 months ago (10 children)

    Honestly, my heart goes out to all these people. Every person on both sides of this senseless invasion is a person. They have parents who probably love them and want to see them again. Friends, siblings likely.

    Also, Russia has a long history of conscription, right? I’m wondering how many of these soldiers want to be there.

    So much senseless violence and loss of life on both sides, and for what? It’s gross.

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  • [–] 18 points 2 months ago* (5 children)

    There hasn’t been much conscription on the Russian side (though recently that’s changing) because conscription is tremendously politically unpopular, most people joined the war on that side by willingly signing a contract because they’re offering huge sums of money compared to what Russian people outside of the biggest cities can make.

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  • [–] 16 points 3 months ago (2 children)

    The Russian people need to start saying “no”. Putin is dweeby little nothing of a creature, not a powerful sorceror. Without people to do the evil for him there is nothing.

    This, in fact, is a message to all the people in the world who are just thugs for their own nasty piece of shit “leaders”.

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  • [–] 22 points 3 months ago* (1 child)

    If the current quality of life for young adult males in Russia isn't an eye opener for those who flirt with authoritarian leaders "for the lulz" I don't know what will get through to them.

    You're not special, dear leader isn't going to offer your uneducated ass a seat at the table - you're canon fodder. End.

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    [–] 29 points 3 months ago* (25 children)

    This is great for Ukraine, but not so hot for the future of warfare. We may have to get good at building EMPs for when the urban pacification terminators come.

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  • [–] 18 points 3 months ago (15 children)

    yeah I can't help but read all this as very bad news indeed in the longer term. There's nothing stopping Russia, North Korea, or indeed any random manchild billionaire deploying this tech within the coming months or years and deciding who they think should die. It's not like nukes which are difficult to get material for and difficult to build. Most of the advanced stuff is the software, which can be easily copied.

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  • [–] 7 points 2 months ago

    but not so hot for the future of warfare.

    Maybe the future of warfare is to figure out a better way for people to settle their differences.

    That would, of course, mean we would first have to figure out how to prevent narcissistic megalomaniacs from being in positions of power.

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    [–] 19 points 2 months ago (2 children)

    Ok I would make fun of Russia but I would rather not believe a CIA spook who's probably a trump appointee, of all people.

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    [–] 17 points 2 months ago

    The reason we're 4½ years into the conflict is that Putin is a piece of shit

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  • [–] 13 points 3 months ago* (5 children)

    Pop goes the weasels. It's only a matter of time before these start being used in other countries for assassinations. scary future indeed.

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    [–] 10 points 3 months ago

    The bravery and strength and heart and resilience of the Ukrainian people is awe inspiring...

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  • [–] 9 points 3 months ago (7 children)

    So why is the frontline not receding?

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  • [–] 23 points 3 months ago* (2 children)

    Cause if you think about that statement for a few seconds, it is unclear what it is even saying. 30 minutes in Ukraine? By what definition of Ukraine borders? The international ones? No matter how bad it is, that seems impossible. The Russian ones? Well, yes. Being behind the front lines is hella dangerous. Not sure how they would even get there. The de-facto controlled Ukraine territory? In that case, you are just saying soldiers that charge Ukraine defenses tend to die, which duh.

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    [–] 8 points 3 months ago
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