The focus of U.S. imperialism and much of the world has partially shifted away from Palestine as Trump targets Latin America and Greenland. But dynamics in the Middle East and the question of Palestinian liberation remain unresolved, despite Trump’s claim to have “ended the war in Gaza.” Palestinians in Gaza are facing their third winter under Israel’s genocidal campaign without adequate shelter, food, or safety. Israel continues to violate the terms of the U.S.-imposed ceasefire by obstructing aid entry and conducting daily killings.
Since the ceasefire began on October 10, 2025, Israel has directly killed more than 450 Palestinians through airstrikes and shootings while creating conditions that lead to further deaths from lack of food, medicine, and shelter. Nearly all of Gaza’s 2 million residents are forced to live in tents or makeshift shelters, enduring freezing nights and frequent storms, which have led to at least 24 deaths from cold exposure alone. Meanwhile, residents often go hungry as Israel turns away aid trucks and prevents organizations from delivering humanitarian aid. The ceasefire stipulates the entry of 600 aid trucks each day, but only 145 have been allowed to enter on average.
In the occupied West Bank, Israel persists in its assault on human rights, demolishing the UNRWA headquarters in East Jerusalem while settler attacks escalate. In the town of Ras Ein al-Auja, 450 out of 650 Palestinian residents have fled because of violence and theft by nearby settlers. Settler violence increased by 27 percent in 2025 and took a particularly heavy toll on olive farmers in the fall. Masked settlers roamed towns with Molotov cocktails, burning cars, houses, and olive groves, and forcing farmers to leave their fruit to rot on the trees to avoid lynch mobs.
Across the world in Davos, Switzerland, Jared Kushner promised Western investors “amazing investment opportunities” during a presentation by Trump’s newly unveiled “Board of Peace.” The board was established as part of the Trump-brokered ceasefire deal in October and is framed as an “internationally verified” overseer, cynically presented to the world as a “Palestinian-led” initiative to rehabilitate Gaza.
Despite the board’s stated intentions of peace and rehabilitation, it was created to perpetuate the genocidal war on Gaza and further cleanse Palestinians from their land at a time when traditional imperial means of slash-and-burn colonialism had failed to force their capitulation. The board has also opened opportunities for various vested parties in the region to exert influence through the imperial symposium. As new members of the board are invited (and disinvited) every day, its precise political stance remains unclear.
Netanyahu seeks to leverage the board to preempt any diplomatic pressure that might force the IDF to withdraw from Gaza or limit his ability to bomb at will. Turkey and the Gulf states aim to use the board to project regional power while inserting vague references to a “future Palestinian state” in hopes of placating their restless citizens. Yet this diplomatic association with Israel could easily backfire, further tarnishing the reputation of Arab states as collaborators in genocide. The Egyptian government, in particular, has long faced criticism for allowing Israel to control the Rafah border crossing and for its violent repression of activists participating in the grassroots-led Samud Land Convoy.
Meanwhile, Trump and his Western allies seek lucrative business deals from the reconstruction of Gaza while avoiding any fallout should the project run aground as many Western-led nation-building exercises do.
The New and Unstable Balance of Forces
The genocide continues to reshape the balance of forces in the Middle East, as Israel has failed to impose a decisive military victory, and the war has instead spread instability across the region. Rather than resolving the Palestinian question, the conflict has multiplied points of tension and crisis. This is already evident on Israel’s northern front. Israel failed to achieve a decisive military victory over Hezbollah in Lebanon, despite heavy losses. Instead, military action against Lebanon has only created a more fragile and volatile situation.
The collapse of state authority in Syria points in the same direction. After 14 years of civil war, the country remains shattered by sectarian violence and social collapse. The recomposition of state power under authorities seeking recognition from Western governments does not represent stabilization but rather a new layer of dependence and repression. Minorities in the country face an uncertain future; Alawites in particular have suffered dozens of brutal massacres at the hands of Sunni forces, with more than 1,500 killed in 2025.
Iran is reeling from a wave of large protests in which thousands have been killed by state forces, attracting the attention of Western governments, who see a ripe opportunity to undermine a regional competitor with regime change. The protests were fueled largely by the deterioration of living conditions brought about by the heavy Western sanctions regime. The government has responded to these protests with a heavy hand, opening fire on civilians and jailing thousands of dissidents, while tensions with imperialism have resulted in an ongoing military standoff that could generate even more regional instability.
Taken together, these developments reveal a stark reality: the war has destabilized the region without resolving the structures of occupation. The October ceasefire in Gaza changed the daily landscape of the conflict, but the Strip remains a killing field. Even the terms of the ceasefire, however loosely followed by Israel, were forced by international pressure from below, including working-class action. The most advanced expression of this struggle is the Global Samud Flotilla and the Block Everything movement in Italy, which raised the political and economic cost of the war and forced temporary concessions, highlighting the potential of an independent working-class response.
The fragility of the ceasefire underscores that negotiations between imperialist and regional capitalist powers cannot resolve the war in the interests of Palestinians. For the pro-Palestine movement, every failed ceasefire reaffirms the same reality: Palestine will not be liberated through negotiations between states but through struggle from below. The decisive force is the regional working class, whose independent action can shift the balance of forces against Israel and its imperialist backers.
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