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[–] 216 points 10 months ago (43 children)

If I had to make a guess, I say it probably will. The convenience of AI is probably here to stay, but the craze of replacing everything with AI will go out the door.

AI will become exactly what it should have been in the first place: an assistant. Not your friend, not your doctor, not your therapist, not a replacement for artists/authors/programmers, and not inside every piece of tech post 2025. It has a place. That place is over-embellished right now, not to mention unsustainable.

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  • [–] 55 points 10 months ago (22 children)

    It will definitely burst, and might take out some fairly large companies with it. Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst. One or two companies will end up with the IP all of them are "building" and it will fizzle into the background of daily use just like the previous assistants like Alexa, Cortana, etc. have.

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  • [–] 44 points 10 months ago (14 children)

    Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst.

    Please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft.

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  • [–] 26 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (10 children)

    Itll be nvidia and openai primarily, id have to imagine

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  • [–] 21 points 10 months ago (8 children)

    Just a reminder that the term "AI" stands for a category of systems that contains a lot more than just LLMs.

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    [–] 118 points 10 months ago (17 children)

    As an aside, you can tell how successful the rebranding of twitter as “x” has been, since even now more than 2 years after the rebranding news articles still have to add “formerly known as twitter” every time they mention it.

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  • [–] 115 points 10 months ago (10 children)

    I still call it Twitter regularly.

    To me, X is a windowing system.

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  • [–] 16 points 10 months ago* (1 child)

    But I also still say Facebook and Google instead of Meta and alphabet

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  • [–] 17 points 10 months ago

    Those are changes in parent company names though while the services Facebook and Google still exist. The rebrand of Twitter to X continuing to not stick for people is a much bigger failure on their part than Meta and Alphabet not entering the general zeitgeist.

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    [–] 84 points 10 months ago* (10 children)

    Some guy spending a billion dollars on pretty much nothing makes me deeply annoyed. Tax billionaires.

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  • [–] 20 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    He famously isn't rich. He manages the money of the rich, he himself is only well off. This isn't his money he's investing, it's the money of the people he works for. So there's obviously some market feeling that this is a good bet.

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    [–] 63 points 10 months ago (9 children)

    Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse. His fund rose a whopping 489 percent when the market did subsequently fall apart in 2008.

    We may have to wait for another three years.

    I looked into the article to find out how long a timeframe he is betting. Unfortunately, it does not say.

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    [–] 57 points 10 months ago (23 children)

    The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won't burst? Keeping it going will require in ever-increasing amounts of money to paper over the gaping chasms that keep cropping up, and eventually the amount of money necessary to keep it going will cease to be feasible. Then, after taking gullible investor for all of they've got, the whole thing will fall over in the world's most well deserved and predictable market crash.

    The subprime mortgage collapse was inevitable only in hindsight, you had to have a good understanding of the market to see it in advance. To see the level of corruption and false promises that have to be made in order to make the mortgage bubble possible. But everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open, I'm not talking about the "how many Rs are in strawberry" questions either, I can sort of see why that's not really a fair question. I'm talking about the fact that every single business that has ever tried to replace its employees with AI, has always failed, and failed almost immediately. Even Amazon couldn't make it work.

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  • [–] 24 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    I think, AI quality aside, it's mostly a matter of timing - IMO the AI bubble is obviously going to pop, NVIDIA's market cap is now 16% of the entire US GDP and OpenAI is trying to IPO at a trillion dollars, which seem like ludicrous numbers to me. But I learned from the last few years that you can also never really underestimate society's ability to just say fuck it and kick the can even further down the road.

    And of course, SOMETHING is going to have to be the final straw that brings it all down, and it could very well be this. But I also didn't think we'd get this far - the 2008 crisis didn't do it, COVID somehow didn't do it, but these things are are also all compounding as we don't deal with them properly. And if AI is going to be the last straw, how long can we put it off for? Could it pop next year or can we still hold it off for another decade with even more ludicrous number-fuckery? I think that's where the trick is going to be.

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  • [–] 17 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (5 children)

    everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open

    To me it is four things in particular:

    1. How AI use erodes skills in the subject AI is being used to assist in. This is a 100% occurrence, and has been demonstrated across all industries from software developers to radiologists. Most experience a 10-20% erosion in their skill set within the first 12 months of AI use, but others in the study groups have seen up to a 40% erosion in their skill sets.
    2. How AI use shuts down critical thinking, and makes users more stupid. This is a 100% occurrence, and has been clearly demonstrated by MRI scans of the prefrontal cortex while users are actively using AI.
    3. How AI use makes the user slower. This is the only user point that is not 100%, as only less than 2% of the most senior and skilled users show a slight increase in work completed… after more than 12 months of using AI. Projections have been made on the other 98%, and over 90% of them will never work faster with AI than without it, regardless of training or experience.
    4. The gratuitous hallucinations, which are only increasing in scope and severity with every AI generation. It arises entirely from the constraints the AI are rewarded with - providing no answer is weighted just as negatively as a wrong answer - and anywhere from 60-80% of all responses are hallucinatory or incorrect in some fashion, depending on the current model.

    In prior generations, any industry with such performance would be laughed clear out of the boardroom.

    But because capitalism is desperately seeking a solution to what they perceive as a problem - how to obtain labour without having to pay said labour - AI is being adopted hand-over-fist.

    After all, the underlying purpose of AI is to allow wealth to access skill while removing from the skilled the ability to access wealth.

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    [–] 52 points 10 months ago (8 children)

    Its not a question of "if" but "when."

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    [–] 48 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    Nvidia down ~8% this week, Palantir down ~10%

    Maybe the needle really is shifting.

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  • [–] 47 points 10 months ago (6 children)

    I just phoned a business today that ended up with an "AI receptionist" when they didn't answer the phone.

    They wanted to take my name down, asked who I was leaving a message for, and then recorded the message...

    My god what a painful process that was. It was absolutely useless. Firstly it got my name wrong, and then the name of the person I was leaving the message for wrong. No "Janet" my name is not Don it's John, and no I'm not leaving a message for Kim Its for Kam. And then it needs to repeat your entire message back to you in order to make sure it didn't fuck it up which amazingly the message was probably 95% okay but it was a giant waste of my time when a FUCKIN VOICEMAIL WOULD HAVE SUFFICED

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    [–] 37 points 10 months ago (10 children)

    Burry also lost money since 2008 making shorts like Tesla. The Big Shart.

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  • [–] 22 points 10 months ago (6 children)

    Looks like very mixed returns. Which is what you'd expect from a strategy of betting on areas that are significantly overvalued.

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    [–] 31 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    I've got a problem with articles like this: "The guy who got it right once is betting a second time he's going to get it right". and then the article continues: "Even though he's got it wrong a bunch of times since, he got it right that one time... So this has gotta be his second time!!"

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    [+] 29 points 10 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago)
    [–] 28 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    since his bet on the housing market he effectively lost money. all the public things he made can also be safety investments in case his secret hedgefund stuff he doesn't have to disclose fails.

    • this is what an ex-financebro told me yesterday

    i LOVE LOVE LOVE the thought of the AI Bubble popping... but i don't think this MF is the guy to trust

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    [–] 25 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    This is in a category I'd like to call hopebait. People so badly wish things they feel are bad simply stopped themselves, that they'll upvote anything that appears to confirm this.

    In this instance, there is nothing of substance in this article to suggest the end of anything is anywhere near in sight.

    One guy, who makes bets constantly, made another bet.

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  • [–] 15 points 10 months ago

    Seriously the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

    People are idiots.

    Is there a consensus there's an AI bubble? Sure?

    Can anyone predict what will happen? LOfuckingL

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  • [–] 24 points 10 months ago (10 children)

    My money is on the American bubble popping. China would do just fine. As to Europe's? Probably not developed enough to seriously impact them, but probably able to fill America's void once the bubble action has died down. America is pretty fucked in general, so it isn't so much AI in particular, but rather a ghost economy.

    Something based on imaginary stocks, grift, de-industrialization, ghost jobs and falsified labor statistics, likely mixed with a debased dollar, just doesn't bode well.

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    [–] 24 points 10 months ago* (4 children)

    The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with.

    Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars

    Them he's betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we're okay with that shit.

    All of this should be illegal as fuck, and this guy belongs in a jail cell

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    [–] 24 points 10 months ago

    Well yeah. Sam Altman just came out and basically said he needs a few trillion dollars and government backed loans. This shit is going to be BAD.

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  • [–] 22 points 10 months ago (4 children)

    What does his height have to do with anything? Are we body shaming?

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    [–] 22 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    Yay, yet another once in a lifetime financial crisis.

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    [–] 17 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    I may be wrong but i thought this guy was not at all a respected investor and only made 1 good trade. So his opinion is kinda worthless.

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  • [–] 16 points 10 months ago (13 children)

    My plan is to stay invested until dividends hit in December, and then I'm going to evaluate moving my investments into a money market or bonds. Amazon's numbers show that consumers are still buying, and my assumption is that consumer spending will hold off the pop for now.

    I 100% expect a massive crash, and when it's just seven companies propping up an entire economy, the pop is going to be very bad. I'd rather lose a little value in the short term than have my portfolio drop to a calamitous degree and have to wait 5-10 years for it to recover.

    *not a FA, just my personal plan

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    [–] 16 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    Market is so fake and manipulated that I no longer have any interest in investing in it. Like always for decades now it is a transfer to the wealthy system.

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    [–] 15 points 10 months ago (1 child)

    his fund, Scion Asset Management, bought $187.6 million in puts on Nvidia and $912 million in puts on Palantir (...) Palantir’s market cap is also up over 150 percent year-to-date. Its current valuation is upwards of 200 times its forward earnings, spreading fears that it may be grossly overvalued.

    He knows which one is more likely to get really fucked in this bubble and it's not the shovel seller

    Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse.

    Can we assume his puts aren't for 2026, but at least 2028 or later?

    As CNN points out, Burry’s track record isn’t perfect. For instance, he called in January 2023 to “sell” in a now infamous tweet

    Something something irrational solvent something

    Palantir CEO Alex Karp: "The two companies he’s shorting are the ones making all the money,"

    One of the companies is making all the money and it's not Palantir.

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