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The Big Short Guy Just Bet $1 Billion That the AI Bubble Pops (futurism.com)
submitted 10 months ago by to c/technology@lemmy.world
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[–] 28 points 10 months ago (5 children)

I think the idea is that, whilst shorting, you get squeezed. The question is not 'if' but 'when' and if it takes too long and you're $1B deep you can lose your shirt

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  • [–] 10 points 10 months ago (4 children)

    Yep. The market can stay irrational etc

    The thing is though as long as it goes down that's usually all you need. You don't need a total collapse.

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  • [–] 8 points 10 months ago (3 children)

    That's the thing though, options are generally relatively short in duration, with most being a few months. The longest options are around 1-2 years out.

    Could AI stay keep its hype for 1-2 years? Probably. Will it? Who knows!

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  • [–] 2 points 10 months ago (2 children)

    I assume he has enough funds to buffer and roll it forward if it takes longer than he thinks.

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  • [–] 1 point 10 months ago* (1 child)

    The question is, will he still see a profit if it takes 5-10 years? Will his investors stick with him even if he loses billions? They almost left in 2008, what if this takes longer than that?

    If you're taking the contrarian stance in investing, you have to be right both about direction and timing, and timing the market is very hard if not impossible.

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