The LLM hype is as big as it is only because of capital's disdain for labour. None of these big AI conpanies have come close to turning a profit. They even have subscriptions now that cost $200 a month and they lose money on those too given that the user actually uses their service. But the promise of taking out of the equation the pesky labourer with silly demands like food and a house is too seductive for investors and this is the closest they have come so far to fulfilling their fantasy. So expect this to go on for a while.

The stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions

But seriously a big difference I see is the level of influence and govt/military association many of these companies have. Google might be more overvalued than AOL was, but how many DoD contracts did AOL have? I can't buy that the US would let these companies crater when American military supremacy (or at least its pretense, which is about just as important) depends on it

This is just another cycle where investors steal public money by pumping up a market, pulling the rug, and then receiving more public money in a bail-out.

the problem is like open ai burns 5 billion a year. dod can easily smother it with money to post about china or whatever. apple/microsoft/google do be posting record profits, the nvidia is highly speculative but at the same time (on its own) not that unreasonable (the growth is fast, if demand doesn't implode, so won't nvidia)

I should sell an AI program to a company where it's just me with like 5 laptops typing bullshit at people. Even a one year contract would net me hundreds of thousands and then boom, i disappear when they lawyers start calling.

This + housing debt crisis will go hard

The vast majority of stock price is future earnings expectations, not just over the next year but over several years. If the market thinks the profits are coming, it can go higher. I also don't think this is worse than the dot com bubble in terms of valuations. It's well into bubble territory though and will eventually pop. But S&P 500 may or may not go to 8000 first.

I see a crypto bubble right next to the AI bubble