The US couldn't defeat Afghanistan and Afghanistan is a significantly poorer and less populous country. The US though can still weaken or ruin Iran for years to come. Iraq is a shell of its former self more than a decade after the US invasion.

I want to be optimistic but the US is dangerous and no one will hold it accountable if it decided to use nuclear weapons.

I think the author overstates the case for China/Russia getting involved and understates how much damage a 2-week sustained air campaign can do to Iranian civilian infrastructure.

I also think the author understates the cost to the US of a 2-week sustained air campaign considering their severely limited stocks.