Even China's population of 1.4 billion would not be enough to fill all the empty apartments littered across the country, a former official said on Saturday, in a rare public critique of the country's crisis-hit property market.
China's property sector, once the pillar of the economy, has slumped since 2021 when real estate giant China Evergrande Group (3333.HK) defaulted on its debt obligations following a clampdown on new borrowing.
Big-name developers such as Country Garden Holdings (2007.HK) continue to teeter close to default even to this day, keeping home-buyer sentiment depressed.
As of the end of August, the combined floor area of unsold homes stood at 648 million square metres (7 billion square feet), the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show.
That would be equal to 7.2 million homes, according to Reuters calculations, based on the average home size of 90 square metres.
I find it interesting that everyone is calling this bad management when it's indicating one thing above all:
Productivity has well exceeded the requirements of the population.
People simply don't need to work that hard anymore, but all industrialized societies, even would-be socialists, simply can't stand the idea of letting the working class have leisure time.
I agree. I don't think we had or have anything to fear. The Chinese educational system is built around obedience, cultural homogeneity, and rote learning. Sure, there are fewer protests, and there is less crime, but also a SEVERE lack of innovation. I can count on one hand the number of innovations China has exported to the world in the last decade. Everything they build of note is based on stolen IP and figurative and literal slave labour. The world is finally clamping down on the former, and China's social progression to a service-based economy is putting an end to the latter. Their comparative competitive advantages are eroding by the day.
They've hit the middle income trap while simultaneously upsetting all their trading partners. It's not going to be a pretty fall from grace. Fake numbers saying how awesome things are only work for so long.
The half finished apartment complexes and ones that are collapsing already because they build them with bamboo instead of cement would indicate otherwise. Look up tofu-dreg projects/buildings for a good laugh. So much of the rapid construction done in the last 20-30 years in China is going to be in landfills far before it should be....
When you make the only safe place for money real estate, then your corrupt Politicians make that only safe for the wealthy and connected, you end up with a lot of empty useless real estate.
For many mainland Chinese people, real estate is the only place they can invest their money. Traditionally and culturally it's also seen as the only possible way to rise up and do better.
The money export controls make it difficult for the average guy to move his money abroad as well.
So there are many Chinese people putting retirement or family savings into these places because they don't have other options.
They have also just had a very long run of easy government backed mortgage support, making it a bit too easy to borrow money for these properties.
It's crazy and doesn't make long term sense when the number of domiciles exceeds the number of people.
This is important, not least because making the cement and steel for these surplus apartments and associated road infrastructure makes an enormous contribution to global CO2 emissions. Look at how the emissions took off after 2005. So the sooner the bubble bursts, the better for the climate.
Then they'll expend CO2 removing the abandoned structures, and building other things on top of some of that, and another bubble will be coming down the pipe sooner or later.
We need to fix the systems that let these bubbles occur in the first place
top 50 comments