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๐จ Latest poll for @ObserverUK. Labour lead at 15 points.
Labour: 43% (-1)
Conservatives: 28% (+3)
Lib Dems: 9% (n/c)
SNP: 3% (n/c)
Green: 6% (-1)
Reform UK: 8% (+1)
(Changes are from a poll released in the Observer last week)
Flavible:
| Party | Pred % | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|
| CON ๐ณ | 28.0% | 199 |
| LAB ๐น | 43.0% | 365 |
| LD ๐ถ | 9.0% | 28 |
| REFUK โก๏ธ | 8.0% | 0 |
| Green ๐ | 6.0% | 1 |
| SNP ๐๏ธ | 3% | 33 |
| PC ๐ฎ | 0.5% | 3 |
Electoral Calculus (2023 Boundaries'):
| Party | 2019 Votes | 2019 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CON ๐ณ | 44.7% | 375 | 28.0% | 9 | 213 | -204 | 172 |
| LAB ๐น | 33.0% | 198 | 43.0% | 233 | 0 | +233 | 430 |
| LIB ๐ถ | 11.8% | 8 | 9% | 8 | 0 | +8 | 16 |
| Reform โก๏ธ | 2.1% | 0 | 8% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
| Green ๐ | 2.8% | 1 | 6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
| SNP ๐๏ธ | 4.0% | 48 | 3.0% | 0 | 38 | -38 | 10 |
| PlaidC ๐ฎ | 0.5% | 2 | 0.5% | 1 | 1 | +0 | 2 |
| Other โฌ๏ธ | 1.1% | 0 | 2.5% | 1 | 0 | +1 | 1 |
| N.Ire โฌ๏ธ | - | 18 | - | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
Scotland EC Break-Down
| Con | Lab | Lib | REF | Green | SNP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 31% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 31% |
Don't believe the Scots numbers for a second in this poll; and they are having a real impact on the EC seat numbers.