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Analysis: When might the world exceed 1.5C and 2C of global warming? - Carbon Brief
(www.carbonbrief.org)
I think we can use "will" or even "is going to" instead of "might" here without problem.
Also, I don't wanna hear and don't care anymore what nations pledge. If governments want my attention, they should deliver active plans and changes in the legislative, not hollow promises.
Now, what I don't understand, maybe somebody can explain this to me: we are currently at 1.2 °C above the baseline. But several sources say that global dimming is currently cooling somewhat between 0.5 and 1 °C. In other words, if we stop all pollution today, we'd quickly face 1.7 to 2.2 °C above the baseline, so at least the 1.5 target would be already technically breached.
Now my question: Is global dimming modelled in any of these scenarios? Because I still see possible pathways just above 1.5. Or are they modelled but the plan is to reduce GHG but not the pollution that causes global dimming? That's pretty much the only explanation that makes sense to me.