A question nobody in the west has been asking: what happens if the Russian President refuses a ceasefire? (www.telegraph.co.uk)

submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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[-] [email protected] 29 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

I was talking to someone recently, who was like "yeah we'll have a ceasefire, raise NATO spending to 3% and rearm ukraine in the meantime." I was fucking incredulous to hear this in real life...

Do you really think the Russians would accept a ceasefire that allows for that under the circumstances? AFTER MINSK???

Quite apart from the fact that if you are arguing (or more likely pretending to argue) from the ukrainian interest, it is completely incoherent. Such a strategy spells doom for ukraine

[-] [email protected] 25 points 5 months ago

I've seen this attitude as well, and it seems to be the thinking that most western leaders have now adapted. And it's just so surreal to not even consider things from the Russian perspective here. The west got so used to dictating terms to the rest of the world, that it's now inconceivable for people here that a country cannot be dictated to.

[-] [email protected] 25 points 5 months ago

They aren't asking because they don't expect him to agree to a ceasefire in the first place. They will offer a shit deal and then, when it's rejected, because they know it'll be rejected, they will cry about how Russia never really wanted peace and all their talk of diplomatic solutions previously were bullshit. This will justify more spending and antagonization.

Liberals will gobble up just like the did for the entirety of the Cold War.

[-] [email protected] 14 points 5 months ago

It's a very plausible scenario. That said, it does look like the US is going to bail on the whole project to pursue new adventures in Asia now.

[-] [email protected] 6 points 5 months ago

There's 2 possibilities, either Trump bails out and lets the EU and UK handle Ukraine, or Trump doubles down and keeps funding Ukraine. From the increasingly desperate attempts to escalate further (ATACMS strike in Russia outside of Kursk, blowing up merchant ships, attempts to shoot down civilian aircraft, assassinations of generals), I'd say the first possibility is the most likely.

[-] [email protected] 6 points 5 months ago

I think so as well, everything I've seen from both Trump and Vance indicates that they understand the war isn't in US interest, and they want to wind it down. Also worth noting that US pulling out would cause panic in Europe that would be monetized by the US military industry. There would be contracts for decades to come as a result.

[-] [email protected] 22 points 5 months ago

More important question they should be asking: Why would Putin agree to a cease fire?

[-] [email protected] 18 points 5 months ago

Exactly, there is zero benefit for Russia to agree to one given that they're winning and all this would accomplish would be to give Ukraine time to consolidate and resupply. I think Putin even said as much when he was doing his Q&A recently.

[-] [email protected] 12 points 5 months ago

IMO, they don't expect Putin to agree. I think they will go to the table knowing Putin will reject it, and then go to the media and be like "SEE, they never wanted a ceasefire. All of those times they claimed to try and have a diplomatic solution were just tricks and lies. Now we come with a real offer and they reject it." And libs will gobble it up like they did..... Every other time the US did this same kind of shit during the Cold war.

[-] [email protected] 5 points 5 months ago

they don’t expect Putin to agree.

This is why euros wont be involved in any peace process. Say what you will about Trump, I doubt he will do those sort of stunts because he really does just want to get out the mess. He isn't ideologically or materially bound to continuing the war like the democrats and the european governments so he will be willing to give away most of Ukraine.

Personally I think trump will keep his cards close for a few months until he can work out a framework with russia. It will look like peace is happening really fast. Ukraine will fold, and trump will tell the euros its over and they should just leave it alone because usa is done fighting in europe and they will be really mad but unable to do anything about it.

[-] [email protected] 2 points 5 months ago

For the most part this is mission accomplished for the US. Crippled the European economy and made Europe dependent on expensive US gas. Forced ukraine to sell off their land and industries to vulture capitalists. Made defence contracts and weapons manufacturers a shit ton of money, including getting Europe & NATO to deplete all old non-USA supplies which will be replaced with new supplies from the US with expensive servicing contracts. Ramped up propaganda and media control to a whole new level.

They failed to weaken Russia and accelerated BRICS development and now the global majority is turning away from the west. We will see in the next few years if the profit was worth it for the US. We will also see if the fall of Ukraine leads to Azov/neo-nazi terror cells in Europe. But hey for the USA there is still Georgia...

[-] [email protected] 2 points 5 months ago

It's a typical kind of short term win with massive long term blow back that US excels at.

this post was submitted on 24 Dec 2024

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