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General Harald Kujat is a former head of the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) and the former Chairman of NATO's Military Committee. Having held the top military position in both Germany and NATO, General Kujat offers his expertise on how the West and Russia ended up fighting a proxy war in Ukraine. General Kujat discusses the failure to reach a common understanding after the Cold War, the toppling of President Yanukovych in Ukraine, the sabotage of the Minsk agreement and the Istanbul peace negotiations, and the West's lies about an "unprovoked" and "full-scale invasion" of Ukraine. When Boris Johnson came to Ukraine to sabotage the peace negotiations in 2022, one of Zelensky's close associates summed up the essence of Johnson's visit: "Johnson brought two simple messages to Kyiv. The first is that Putin is a war criminal; he should be pressured, not negotiated with. And the second is that even if Ukraine is ready to sign some agreements on guarantees with Putin, they are not. We can sign [an agreement] with you [Ukraine], but not with him. Anyway, he will screw everyone over".

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I'm really appreciating the simple grace of the old wisdom here. It sounds like old time guerilla warfare, to my understanding.

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By Stephen Sefton

It's hard to overstate the insanity of the ruling elites of the collective West. They have proven incapable of recognizing that they can no longer continue to dominate the governments of the majority world as they once did. For now, they continue to act to impose more easily manipulated regimes in countries susceptible to destabilization, such as, in recent years, Bangladesh and now Nepal. However, to overthrow governments or political movements steadfast in defending their countries' sovereignty, Western governments have been forced to resort to military aggression supported by regional allies and vassals, as they did most recently successfully in Syria.

In the case of West Asia, the recent attack in Qatar against the Palestinian peace negotiating team calls into question the extent to which Arab countries that have collaborated with US regional policy will continue to do so. Now, the collective Western military plans to overthrow the governments of Iran and Venezuela indicate the growing desperation of the US and European elites. They see that their political and economic power is no longer enough to achieve what they want, so they resort to direct military aggression, for example against Iran, or indirect aggression against Russia.

Against Iran and Venezuela, it appears the Americans are testing local support levels before deciding on the precise form of their military attack and launching it. This process of weighing the pros and cons and evaluating the costs and benefits of attacking Iran and Venezuela occurs within a strategic realignment of traditional American alliances around the world. Much commentary on the international situation suggests a rationalization of the US ruling elites' political-military approach to the Western Hemisphere, without being able to accurately determine the scope of this process.

If the Yankee elites were truly confident in their political-military power to defeat Venezuela, they likely would have done so already. Last June, Iran already demonstrated the inferiority of Western military technology. Yemen has demonstrated the weakness of American military power against a country with relatively modest deterrent power. To date, in the Caribbean, the Yankee Navy has only demonstrated its capacity to attack unarmed civilian boats and fishermen. Venezuela has had years to prepare and has already successfully activated its civil-police-military fusion model equipped with modern Russian military weapons.

In any case, amid this period of transition in American foreign policy, it is evident that President Donald Trump is seeking to compensate in one way or another for the collapse of American economic power, especially relative to China. For this reason, he pursues the illusion of taking control of Venezuela's hydrocarbon and mineral resources. While Venezuela asserts its national dignity and defends its sovereignty, the Donald Trump administration claims that the world at large must help sustain the American economy, through large investments or increased imports of American goods.

Specifically, European countries, and other vassal states such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, have been required to urgently increase their military spending to purchase large quantities of American equipment and weapons. For their part, all European NATO member countries have agreed to increase their military spending to 5% of their Gross Domestic Product. They have also agreed to purchase tens of trillions of dollars' worth of American weapons, partly to ship to Ukraine but also to satisfy their absurd obsession with a possible war in Europe against Russia.

Among US allies in Asia and the Pacific, Japan is on track to increase its military spending by 65% ​​by 2027 compared to 2022. The Japanese military is projected to become the third largest in the world behind the US and the People's Republic of China. In 2023, US President Joe Biden praised Japan's increased military spending as a contribution to the US policy of "strongly opposing attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion" in the East Asian region. This in fact refers to the US government's unspoken, cynical position to prevent the reunification of the rebellious Chinese province of Taiwan with the People's Republic of China.

Since 2020, the US government, in open violation of its supposed recognition of the one-China principle, has authorized the sale of more than US$14 billion in arms and military equipment to the Taiwanese authorities. In the same meddling manner, the US government continues to stir up tensions on the Korean Peninsula. This year, the South Korean government will increase its military spending by more than 8%. And although this increase does not seem very significant, from China's perspective, it complements the significant increase in Japan's military spending, continued US military support for Taiwan, and increased US military cooperation with the Philippines.

Furthermore, South Korea, like Japan and Europe, maintains tens of thousands of US military personnel on its territory. There are nearly 80,000 US military personnel in South Korea and Japan, distributed across more than 40 bases. Australia hosts several US military bases, including a nuclear submarine base. Europe and the United Kingdom host more than 40 military bases with more than 65,000 US military personnel. This political-military reality demonstrates the neocolonial dependence of the ruling elites in these wealthy countries and explains their submissive surrender to President Trump's aggressive demands.

The US government has pushed to the limit to see how far its counterpart governments will surrender their countries' national dignity and sovereignty. For decades, US governments have abused their dominance of vassal countries around the world, which they cynically call "allies," to harass and threaten governments and peoples defending their sovereignty, such as Democratic Korea and Iran, or even Russia and China. The US military constantly organizes provocations in the form of military exercises, a permanent presence of its Navy, and aggressive air force patrols.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, the US armed forces have always maintained dozens of military bases in the region, notably in Central America and the Caribbean. But the US Southern Command also continually strengthens its regional presence through dozens of joint military exercises each year throughout the region. This year, exercises like "Tradewinds 2025" facilitate US and European regional involvement in the Caribbean. "Centam Guardian" in Guatemala and "Fuerzas Comando" in El Salvador facilitate US military control in Central America. "Southern Vanguard" and "Estrella Austral" bring together US military forces with their counterparts in South American countries.

Now, in addition to this permanent military presence in Latin America and the Caribbean, the US government is escalating its threats against Venezuela to the same levels it maintains against Democratic Korea, Iran, Russia, and China, through the deployment of eight warships in the Caribbean. This naval force includes a nuclear-powered attack submarine, a cruiser, and three destroyers, all with guided missiles, along with three amphibious assault ships. While the pretexts for the US's aggressive stance in other regions of the world revolve around false accusations of nuclear threats or territorial expansion, the pretext against Venezuela is the fight against drug trafficking and terrorism.

The enormous and disproportionate military force deployed in the Caribbean has been justified by designating drug trafficking as a terrorist activity. On February 25, the US government formally designated eight drug cartels in the region as terrorist organizations. The cartels named were Tren de Aragua, Mara Salvatrucha, the Sinaloa Cartel, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, the Northeast Cartel (formerly Los Zetas), the New Michoacan Family, the Gulf Cartel, and the United Cartels. More recently, US authorities have reinvented the Cartel of the Suns to justify their aggression against Venezuela with the fantasy that President Nicolás Maduro has resurrected it and is its leader.

Thus, the various false accusations, already refuted multiple times in reports by the same US authorities and the UN, are still used as media and political justifications for Yankee aggression in our region. Of course, it is common knowledge that the largest drug cartel and the largest terrorist entity in the region has always been the government of the United States. However, just as the lackey governments of West Asia, Europe, or East Asia serve as accomplices to legitimize the aggressions of the collective West in their regions, in Latin America and the Caribbean, subservient governments are not needed to support the aggression against the legitimate government of President Nicolás Maduro.

On September 5th, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States issued a statement condemning the dangerous US military escalation against Venezuela. But shamefully, ten CELAC member countries failed to sign it. Argentina, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Jamaica, Paraguay, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago abandoned their national dignity and betrayed the sovereignty of their peoples in favor of neocolonial submission as accomplices of the new US aggression against Venezuela.

The CELAC declaration recalls that all its member countries agreed to declare Latin America and the Caribbean a zone of peace, "based on principles such as: the prohibition of the threat or use of force, the peaceful settlement of disputes, the promotion of dialogue and multilateralism, unrestricted respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, non-interference in the internal affairs of States, and the inalienable right of peoples to self-determination." These principles reaffirm the fundamental principles of the United Nations Charter and are also the common basis for the new international relations promoted by the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS+ group of countries.

The vast majority of countries in the region uphold these essential principles for sustaining and promoting peace in a new world era. Instead, the U.S. government and its vassals revert to the imperialist gunboat diplomacy of the 19th century and replicate the same failed and counterproductive patterns they have tried in other regions of the world. Albert Einstein's famous definition of insanity applies: continuing to do the same thing repeatedly, always expecting a different result.

For some insane reason, the Yankee elites think they're going to achieve a result against the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela that's different from their repeated historical failures. It's not necessary to recall their defeat in Vietnam; it's enough to note their most recent failures, such as their humiliating withdrawal from Afghanistan, their counterproductive harassment of Democratic Korea and China, and their failed aggressions against Iran and Russia. Even for Nicaragua, these historic dates of Todos San Jacinto demonstrate this in the most profound way. As our Co-Presidents, Commander Daniel and Compañera Rosario, so rightly remind us: They Couldn't, Nor Will They Be Able!

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The Economist reports: "China is ditching the dollar, fast".

Over 30% of China’s trade in goods & services is now done in its own currency, RMB.

China settles over 50% of its total cross-border receipts (including financial flows) in yuan, up from less than 1% in 2010.

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The development of the Israeli operation against Doha exposes not only Tel Aviv's military audacity, but also the fragility and impotence of Iran's neighboring Arab regimes.

🔹 Covert entry: Israeli fighter jets entered Jordanian and Saudi Arabian airspace without sending any signals to air traffic controllers. In Amman and Riyadh, they believed it was another mission against Yemen and did nothing.

🔹 Surprise change of target: Halfway through the route, the warning came: “The target has changed, do not interfere.” The Saudis, convinced that it was an attack on Iran, celebrated... until they discovered that the real target was Qatar. Only then did they receive the call from Tel Aviv confirming that the attack would be directed eastward.

🔹 Miscalculations in the region: While the Americans and Saudis were monitoring the movements of Iran and Yemen, they completely ignored the Israeli maneuver. Even the Qatari Air Force, which detected the planes from a distance, assumed that it was a deployment against Iran and did not take preventive measures.

🔹 Execution of the attack: Israeli fighter jets flew over eastern Saudi Arabia—where air traffic is dense—launched cruise missiles at Doha, and left the area unopposed.

🔹 Ineffective defenses: Qatari air defense systems, under US control, did not react at all. To make matters worse, NATO's identification system (IFF) classified the Israeli planes as “friendly,” which ruled out any possibility of response.

🔹 Political outcome: Qatar was left virtually blind and paralyzed, unable to defend itself or exercise real sovereignty over its airspace. What happened reflects what many describe as the ultimate humiliation for Arab governments in the region: dependent, weak, and totally incapable of responding to direct aggression.

Análisis from a Cuban Telegram in Spanish. Let me know your thoughts or if you find a mistake here.

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Despite all the rhetoric, Europe has continued buying large volumes of Russian energy from third parties. Looks like now that the attack on India failed, the new plan is to force Europe to stop buying energy instead. Europeans will now be forced to become even more reliant on expensive energy exports from the US and their economies will further suffer allowing the US to poach more business from Europe as a result.

https://xcancel.com/SecScottBessent/status/1965228619795452332

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It is often difficult to identify a precise starting point for historical processes, which can take shape over decades. The collapse of the Soviet Union at the end of the 1980s is an example of this reality, which also applies to the end of the old system of international relations that began in 1945 and the beginning of the new era the world has entered. However, it is possible to identify the key moments that mark the most important steps in these historical processes. It is also possible to characterize the varieties of the processes underway that engender these decisive moments, which can occur suddenly and unexpectedly, despite having been long anticipated.

The recent Tianjin Summit of the member and associate countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, along with the impressive military parade in Beijing, is an example of how a single historic moment can simultaneously clarify and culminate several economic, political-military, and political-emotional processes. The statements by the respective leaders of the more than 20 countries participating in the Summit confirmed the economic capacity and political will of the major countries of the majority world—China, India, and Russia—to advance without necessarily depending on favorable trade and financial exchanges with the collective West.

Two days after the Summit, the unprecedented and massive military parade in Beijing alerted the collective West to the formidable advances in China's defensive capabilities. In the context of the strategic defeat of the collective West in the form of NATO in Ukraine, it was a wake-up call that was impossible to ignore. On the political-emotional level, on the one hand, the Summit and the grand parade in China clarified the sense of pride, determination, firmness, and solidity of the SCO countries. At the same time, they were an expression of their exasperation, rejection, contempt, and defiance of the threats, lies, blackmail, unilateral measures, and aggression of a collective West in crisis and undeniable decline.

The North American and European governments will no longer be able to continue acting in their usual unilateral and arrogant manner without paying an ever-increasing political and economic cost. The Western world's clumsy narcissism and the invariable focus of its greedy ruling elites on their own enrichment have made the decline of their international power and influence inevitable. It is easy to trace the course of this outcome from the dissolution of the Soviet Union at the end of 1991 to the present. The 1990s offered several opportunities for the collective West to correct its erroneous interpretation of that event, so disastrous for the balance of international relations.

Instead of seizing these opportunities, the Western elites replicated and multiplied their errors and criminal calculations year after year. They consistently supported the illegal occupation of Palestine by the genocidal Zionist regime and the sadistic illegal blockade of Cuba. They promoted constant destabilization in Africa. Almost immediately after the end of the Soviet Union, they encouraged the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia and used the ensuing war in the region to impose their economic, political-military, and jurisdictional dominance. It would be unnecessary to repeat the endless catalog of interventions and aggressions from Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela to Democratic Korea, Syria, and Iran.

It is enough to note the destructive military aggressions and their aftermath against Serbia in 1999, Iraq in 2003, Libya in 2011, and Western support for the Nazi regime's war in Ukraine against its own Russian-speaking population after the coup in kyiv in 2014. For more than 30 years, there has been constant interference and attempts at regime change by Western governments around the world. All of these interventions have been deliberate decisions on the part of Western governments to harm governments and political movements that defend national sovereignty and the interests of their people. Since the Western financial collapse in 2008-2009, the ruling elites of the collective West have increasingly applied elements of their disastrous foreign policy to their own populations.

For example, to emerge from the 2008-2009 crisis, Western governments, at the service of their respective ruling elites, implemented an unprecedented transfer of wealth to rescue the financial oligarchy of the collective West from the aftermath of its own delinquency. At the same time, they applied punitive, anti-democratic economic austerity measures to their respective populations to finance the bailout and manage the resulting economic collapse. They did the same during the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 measures between 2020 and 2022. The cycle of crisis and bailout in the economies of Western countries has been progressively worsening for many years.

Now the policy of economic repression has extended to the suppression of legitimate democratic protest and freedom of expression. In Germany and the United Kingdom, peaceful public protest against the Israeli government's genocide of the Palestinian people in Gaza is virtually prohibited. In England, a few days ago, more than 400 people were arrested for declaring their support for Palestine at a demonstration in London. Nor is it possible in Europe to publicly criticize the militarism of European governments against Russia without being accused of sympathizing with and collaborating with President Putin. This repression of freedom of expression is another aspect of the process of political and moral decay in Western societies.

Over the past 15 years, this anti-democratic decomposition of the collective West at the national level and its repeated neocolonial aggressions abroad have driven and intensified the corresponding development of autonomous processes in the majority world. Indeed, Russia and China began the process of forming an independent structure of economic protection and political-military defense in 1996 when they formed the so-called Shanghai Group of Five. A major motivation for this initiative was to increase regional security against terrorist and separatist groups operating in Chechnya against Russia and in Xinjiang against China.

These terrorist separatist groups were widely and covertly supported by the US government and its allies, just as they had done in the 1980s against Afghanistan, Angola, Mozambique, and Nicaragua. In 2001, the Shanghai Group of Five expanded into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, always prioritizing regional security but with greater cooperation in economic and cultural aspects. Then, between 2008 and 2010, a more ambitious initiative with a global reach was developed in the form of the BRICS group, composed of the governments of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

In the last decade, the SCO has tended to act more decisively than the BRICS group because the SCO countries interact more coherently and also cooperate more both bilaterally and in other forums such as the Eurasian Economic Union. The entry of India and Pakistan into the SCO in 2015 expanded its scope and deepened the coherent comprehensive development of the Eurasian region. Subsequently, the integration of Iran and new partner countries from the Arab world and Southeast Asia into the SCO undoubtedly inspired and facilitated the expansion of the BRICS+ group as well. The example of equal integration by the Eurasian countries in the SCO has served as a successful model for various regional security and cooperation initiatives in Africa, especially the Alliance of Sahel States confederation in West Africa.

Thus, for the majority world, this is a matter of several intertwined processes that advance in a predictable but not necessarily inevitable manner, nor without disagreements. In parallel, it is clear that the decline of the collective West relative to the majority world also results from a series of interconnected processes. For the West, this is a matter of insufficient economic investment, along with the consequent progressive deterioration of its productive capacity; of diplomatic bad faith and counterproductive political-military aggression at the international level; of domestic repression of legitimate protest and anti-democratic policies of control and surveillance; of the historical narcissism of the ruling elites; and of its current cultural stagnation and moral decay.

Correspondingly, the categorical affirmation of a new era of international relations by the major powers of the majority world is based on highly positive processes. Domestically, the countries of the majority world are progressively seeking and promoting greater investment in the human development of their peoples to improve their productive economic capacity and ensure a dynamic of innovation. At the same time, in foreign relations, they insist on genuine multilateralism, respect for the cultures and interests of other countries, and a sincere commitment to dialogue among equals to resolve contradictions.

At this moment, we see the horrific episodes of genocide in Palestine and the aggression against Lebanon, as well as the desperate US aggressions and threats against Iran and now Venezuela, unfolding. In the face of these deeply disturbing events, the majority world continues to develop successful processes of regional integration and exchange with firm determination. It is undeniable that the SCO Summit in Tianjin and the military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the Chinese People's Victory over the Japanese Empire marked another key moment in the development of a new era of international relations. A source of hope is the growing international willingness to demand radical reform of the United Nations.

Russia recognized the inherent bad faith of the West with NATO's unilateral military aggression against Serbia in 1999. China began to be more reserved in its policy toward the collective West when NATO abused the UN mandate in 2011 to attack Libya. This year, Indian authorities have realized that it is impossible to trust the American government and its European allies. The Indian case is a particularly important example at this time for two main reasons. First, its authorities have agreed with the Russian company Rosatom to develop an ambitious program with new, less risky and more efficient nuclear energy technologies, such as small modular reactors and nuclear reactors based on thorium instead of uranium.

India has the world's largest thorium reserves and plans to rapidly double its electricity generation with this new nuclear technology to 900 gigawatts by 2030. Second, India has also made the strategic decision to fully integrate as a key partner with Russia in the development of the Northern Sea Route in the Arctic and also the International North-South Transport Corridor. Both routes will dramatically reduce transportation costs and accelerate the development of trade both within the vast Eurasian region and with Africa and Europe.

The same logic that has driven India's closer relationship with the Eurasian region is at work in Latin America. Counterproductive US aggression and its constant neocolonial intervention delay and obstruct progress in regional connectivity and the development of trade and financial integration. While Argentina, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, and Peru compete to see who can be the most subservient to their US masters, most countries in the region have condemned threats of renewed US aggression against Venezuela. It seems that Brazil, like India, has finally discovered that showing deference to the insatiable US ruling elites is pointless.

It remains to be seen to what extent the majority of Latin American and Caribbean countries will be able to defend their sovereignty and national dignity in solidarity with Venezuela, as Cuba and Nicaragua have done in the face of intensifying Yankee aggression in the region. This is another key moment that may well confirm the demise of the old world order of "spheres of influence" and the Monroe Doctrine, and the full emergence of a new, more just and democratic world order for the entire world. As our Co-President, Compañera Rosario, said after the military parade in Managua last week, "We know that we are moving forward... Another world is not only possible.

Another world is already real. Another world is taking shape. And another world is dawning. It is the Golden Dawn of the Peoples!"

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Geopolitics

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The study of how factors such as geography, economics, military capability and non-State actors affects the foreign policy of states.

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