this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2023
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China’s imports of Dutch lithography machines have surged this year, with the first seven months already surpassing ASML Holding’s previous forecast for 2023 sales to China, according to a new report, as Chinese firms stock up on the equipment ahead of new export curbs.

From January to July, Chinese imports of Dutch-made lithography machines, nearly all from chip equipment giant ASML, grew 64.8 per cent year on year to US$2.58 billion, Chinese semiconductor industry consultancy JW Insights said in a report published on Friday, citing China customs data.

In January, ASML projected that its sales to China this year would remain steady at about 2.2 billion euros (US$2.36 billion), or 14 per cent of its total annual revenue.

In July, China imported US$626 million worth of lithography machines from the Netherlands, nearly eight times larger than the same month last year, according to the report.

ASML has a near monopoly on the world’s most advanced lithography machines, which are required for the production of cutting-edge chips. Under US pressure, the company has cut off exports of its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems to China.

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[–] [email protected] 25 points 1 year ago (3 children)

Why did they allow them to buy those machines? Wasn't this part of the embargo?

Looks like a very stupid loophole to leave

[–] [email protected] 12 points 1 year ago (1 children)

China can make the machines they’re buying. The tech isn’t too hard.

EUV on the other hand needed several billions of dollars, years of research, and three US Department of Energy Labs to develop, then investment in optics from the EU.

The US asked the Dutch government to stop selling China tech that the US government licensed to them.

[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 year ago

ASML had to put in a decades of r&d to make EUV work too. It wasn't like they could just go over the research and start building. So yeah, it's difficult.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 year ago

The embargo only covered EUV IIUC.

EUV is the tech that the latest Apple and Intel chips are using.

DUV is the older tech that China is buying.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago)

It is not an American company. The US asked the Netherlands to ban it and they have now restricted it.

[–] [email protected] 20 points 1 year ago (2 children)

This is a big deal. ASML is one of the most bleeding edge companies that almost no one has ever heard of. Their equipment should be kept out of Red China as much as possible.

[–] [email protected] 13 points 1 year ago (1 children)

ASML (Netherlands) and TSMC (Taiwan) may be the two most important companies in the global electronics supply chain.

China is certainly looking to bolster their own competition in this space. But that hasn't happened yet. I'm sure the CCP is very concerned about this regulation. If they're not, they should be.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (2 children)

With the kind of long-term thinking that China tends to do, I have little doubt that they know they need to develop their own tech. By limiting their access now, that would probably keep Chinaa decade or maybe even two behind the bleeding edge tech that ASML or TSMC are producing. And I tell you right now that if a war ever did break out between China and Taiwan, gaining access to TSMC would be one of the mainland China's prime targets to take over.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 year ago

gaining access to TSMC would be one of the mainland China’s prime targets to take over.

They will never get them in an operational state. It is not just the fabs, which I doubt will survive the invasion but the hundreds of engineers needed to run them.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago (1 children)

China does so little long term planning. It’s beholden to the short term emotional tantrums/wolf warrior diplomacy of its leadership.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago

I can't agree with that at all.

Their planning when it comes to their car industry is a perfect example of them thinking long term. Right now they are the leaders in EVs. Their domestic car industry is shockingly advanced in terms of quality and design and tech. But that wasn't the case some 25 years ago when they were a good 50+ years behind Western countries.

They implemented a plan which forced foreign carmakers to partner with Chinese companies if they wanted to sell within the country. They were using their massive scale to push these partnerships, and the short term thinking kf most Western companies made them fall for it. So with those partnerships technology and know-how was shared with Chinese companies. This is the kind of know-how that companies usually keep as secret as possible because of how important it is - IP is probably one of the most important things to modern manufacturing companies. These Western companies were essentially training their long term replacements all so they could sell a few thousand more cars per year in the short term.

And in many ways that is exactly what is happening right now - there is a big push in China recentky to support domestic brands. Sales for foreign makes is dropping and the Chinese are buying BYDs and Geelys. These Chinese brands have gotten so good, in fact, that they are now exporting their EVs to Europe and elsewhere.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)
[–] [email protected] 10 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Because they make the equipment that make the chips that EVERYTHING in our modern world runs on. I'm only slightly exaggerating that statement. If you are tech savvy and understand the microscopic scale that chips have moved to, well ASML and only like one other company (TSMC) are making the equipment to be able to allow these ever-smaller processes even possible.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Yeah, but why is it bad to have more manufacturers of chips?

[–] [email protected] 4 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Are we going to play the "nothing wrong with China" angle here?

[–] [email protected] -2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

No, I'm playing the "I'd love to get cheap hardware thanks to increased competition in the market" angle. You, on the other hand, are playing the "CHINA BAD" angle.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 1 year ago (1 children)

Because China is bad. This is not an argument.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago

Yeah it's an opinion