this post was submitted on 16 Sep 2024
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Climate - truthful information about climate, related activism and politics.

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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[–] [email protected] 10 points 2 months ago

Shocker, tax avoiding megacorps use the same accounting principles for carbon avoidance. Presumably with te aid of the same in-pocket politicians.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 months ago (1 children)

At this point, my only hope is that the failed business model will kill most of these before they get even worse, regulators don't seem to have any appetite to monitor or restrict/tax the runaway energy usage.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 months ago

What failed business model? This isn't all because of AI.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 months ago

You don't say?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

are likely about 662% – or 7.62 times – higher than officially reported.

This annoys me. If the value is 662% higher than reported, then it is also:

  • 6.62 times higher than reported
  • 762% as high as reported
  • 7.62 times as high as reported

Whether you use percentage or a factor doesn't change the principle. "as high" signals a new value that is a straight multiple, "higher than" signals a change that is a multiple, so always assume a base of 1 or 100% on which the change is added.

By the way 1 and 100% is the exact same thing, and so is 662% and 6.62. Percent aren't magical they are just a short form for saying hundredths of 1.

In everyday speech they also signal that you're talking about a fractional value in relation to a different one that is hopefully clear from context. But it isn't always and people abuse that too.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago (1 children)

It seems to boil down to the question of how much you believe in the Recs market working.

The way I understand those Recs is, they pay extra to have green energy produced, but it's not in the location where they are actually using energy. So their actual energy use is much more grey than what they pay for, but they essentially say as long as the correct pricing signal reaches the location independant energy market this is good for green energy buildup.

Now the idea behind that must be that it's more sensible to support green energy production in places where projects are being built, where they perhaps can be most efficiently built, rather than trying to bribe the local suppliers into building green energy locally, where perhaps the location isn't even well suited. It's kind of understandable from that perspective.

But I can see how there would be lots of corrupting influences here. The companies local to the green electricity producers can factually claim that the local power is greenly produced without paying for the Recs, and the remote companies can pay the Recs and claim they are supporting green energy. In the end you have a sort of double counting of the green energy, swallowing up some of the market demand for an actual buildup of more green energy capacity. Or even more nefarious, maybe a company could start issuing more Recs than green energy production actually justifies.

The system also masks out the issue of actually transmitting and storing the green energy from where and when it's produced to where and when it's needed. Even if you have perfect Recs accounting in the system, nothing guarantees that the pricing signals align time wise. Green energy prices should be higher during the night or winter, but that's not reflected in time independant Recs.

And finally the existance of the Recs system absolves the data center builder from choosing a location where green energy can be produced or transmitted to. If this ends up placing a datacenter close to a coal power station, and then they buy Recs from a solar park in a desart far away. In the end this makes it harder for the local community to overcome the need for the coal power station. It might have been possible to build enough local green energy and storage without the datacenter next door, but once it's there soaking up lots of local capacity it's going to be much harder to replace the local grey producer.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago

It's pretty well documented that the transferrable renewable energy credits don't result in the construction of additional renewables. That lack of additionality means that they're not effective at causing decarbonization.