this post was submitted on 26 Aug 2024
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submitted 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
 

The dissemination and distribution of solar power might seem minor today, but if you model solar growth as roughly exponential - as is typical for new developments - then solar could become the dominant power source in 2036 - which is not far into the future, even on human timescales. I ask you to keep your head up high, and believe into the future, because I care about you, and I don't want you to suffer from depression and anxiety.

Sources: solar energy growth and energy mix

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[–] [email protected] 6 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Extrapolating the trend line to an exponential curve doesn't look like a good fit at all. The extrapolation is easily overestimated by at least one order of magnitude, maybe two.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 weeks ago

True, but it seems a magnitude is just around 8 years, so eventually we'll get there.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 weeks ago

Yep. Your curve will probably curve downwards before the end of that line for lack of demand.

Or maybe not, because of Jevon's Paradox. But I don't think we will adapt that fast.