Given the fact that Kier Starmer appears to be the most unpopular PM in British history with single digit percentage approval ratings, labour might just join up with the opposition to get rid of him.
Not sure it's the smartest thing to do given Rybar's unofficial links to the Russian Ministry of Defence as a limited hangout of sorts, they did one of these with Venezuela and that didn't go well...
US military buildup against Iran update:
There's been a noticeable surge in airlift operations, I was able to catch 17 aircraft with RCH/REACH callsigns airborne simultaneously a few hours ago. 1x KC-46 mid air refueling aircraft repositioning within the continental USA, 2x C5M Super Galaxy heavy airlifters (1x at Fort Hood, home to 3x PATRIOT battalions and 2x THAAD batteries), and 14x C17 Globemaster III airlift/transport aircraft. A majority of them were over Europe, flying from Germany towards the Middle East and back again, a line of them. 5x 4 digit RCH codes, including both C-5Ms, indicating a higher priority mission.
The line of C-17s currently airborne:
4x F-35A aircraft from the Vermont Air National Guard, which specialise in the suppression of enemy air defences and participated in previous airstrikes against Iran and Venezuela, have redeployed from Puerto Rico back to their home base in Burlington, Vermont, with an expected transit to Europe and then the Middle East in the coming days. 6x F-35As from the Vermont Air National Guard are currently in Rota, Spain, having already moved directly from Puerto Rico previously. There have been supporting C-17 flights direct from Puerto Rico to Jordan, likely in support of the upcoming deployment.
Rybar is talking about it again, because of course they are
Yeah no surprise talks are collapsing. Even more of a farce than last time.
As expected, looks likely the United States will instead strike Iran this weekend.
This really depends on how the airlift goes with regards to transportation of air defence systems, moving tactical fighter aircraft to the Middle East, etc if the US wants to stick to the current plan. The US has had two large logistical setbacks, which is probably why they even tried to initiate these talks, to buy time.
Signs to look out for if the US wants to move faster:
If we don't see this in the next few days, I'll assume that the US will wait longer for more build-up. The US can absolutely strike now if they wanted, or any time previously or after because of their global strike capabilities though. I'm basing the previous sentence on previously observed patterns when Trump takes military action, going back to Syria 2017 US strikes, and most recently against Iran last year and Venezuela last month.
One factor here that was not present any time previously is the air wing of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, one of the most advanced in the US Navy. Not only so they have operational F-35Cs and EA-18Gs with NGJ pods, but also "long range kill chain weapons" such as air launched SM-6/AIM-174B Gunslinger multi purpose missiles for their Block II F/A-18 Super Hornets. These are missiles capable of air to air engagements at ranges in excess of 200nmi/230mi/370km, using F-35Cs and E-2D Hawkeye aircraft to complete the kill chain. (F-35 tracks target, passes on information to E-2D, back to the F-18 or datalinked to the AIM-174B). This may mean that F-22s aren't needed for air superiority.
Is it a "sonic weapon" (in that it's audible)? Is it's method of action high power microwaves? We know that the US has high power microwave generators on cruise missiles that can be fired by bombers and tactical fighter aircraft that can disable electronics. Could such a weapon be used on people as well? Did any of the Cuban/Venezuelan soliders report a burning sensation on the surface of their skin. Or just dizziness and nausea?
March is quite optimistic... Last time it took months to fix.
F-35C shot down a Shahed 139 apparently. Iran has been sending these reconnaissance UAVs to observe the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier over the past few days, during peacetime these kind of things happen all the time, drones/submarines from Russia/China/Iran shadowing US aircraft carriers. However, during a time of high tension or war, the US is going to shoot down any potential reconnaissance or offensive military assets shadowing their fleet.
with focus on Africa
Algeria specifically. They just got Su-35s, Su-34s, and S-400. Su-57s are apparently on order. Each of these is a potential multi billion dollar deal when all supporting equipment and infrastructure is considered, that's the main technical partner there.
After Algerian deals are complete, Russia may look to India for technical partnership to actually make the S-500, which at the moment is more of an amalgamation of the S-400/SA-21 command and control and radars, with the Gaint missiles from S-300V4, which is why it's not in mass production.
Us Military buildup against Iran update:
"Theintelfrog" on X/Twitter has done a count of all the US military strategic airlift (C-17 Globemaster III and C-5M Super Galaxy) operations related to the transfer of air defence systems to the Middle East. They confirm what I said last week: flights are originating from both Fort Hood and Fort Bliss. In addition, flights are now coming from Kadena Air Base in Japan. As for what's stationed at each base:
Fort Hood:
Fort Bliss:
Kadena:
As for flight counts, according to Theintelfrog:
Origins:
- 34-Fort Hood
- 6-Kadena AB
- 4-Fort Bliss
Destinations:
- 13-Muwaffaq Al Salti AB, Jordan
- 8-Prince Sultan AB, Saudi Arabia
- 8-Ali Al Salem AB, Kuwait
- 1-Al Udeid AB, Qatar
- 1-Isa AB, Bahrain.
About 2/3 of the way there for departure flights, and 1/2 way there for arrivals for a single PATRIOT battalion (usually consists of 6x batteries, requires around 60-70+ C-17 flights to transport). Expect these flights to continue in the coming weeks, depending on how many air defence systems the US military wants to deploy to the Middle East.
our theories are woefully inadequate
They should've realised that when majority of Latino men voted for Trump... Over a year ago.
He somehow is less popular than Liz Truss, the lady that got outlasted by a cabbage and did a crash the economy speed run. It's incredible that he's still even in power, him and Macron too, who just straight up banned Le Pen from elections.