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A shift to the left for the Democratic Party means adopting progressive policies, ie material goals. It is not about an idealist movement to progressivism.
Moving away from supporting Israel is a policy which would go against seventy years of US policy for either Republicans or Democrats. Biden's initial response was inline with standing US policy. So for starters, the fact Biden has moved as far to the left on this issue as he has in response to the Uncommitted Movement is phenomenal. I think we still have further to go, but it's a good sign so far.
No, like any voting block progressives want Democrats to enact progressive policies, which would be a shift to the left. Opposing Israel's genocide would be one such policy. My point is that Democrats will respond to progressives voting for them by shifting to the left. They will not shift to the left or in any direction on the political spectrum because of third party voter turn out, as they are not incentivized to do so.
Socialism and fascism are not constrained by concepts like materialism and idealism. Both socialism and fascism hold ideals about what they envision for society. These ideals vary wildly between those two groups and I would argue that a fascist's idea of an ideal is nightmarish to say the least. A socialist ideal would be equality. In the workplace sure, but in general as well. A fascist ideal would be harkening to an imagined past or believing in a pretend purity of a bloodline or a system of nonsensical skull measurements. Both socialism and fascism have materialistic goals as well. Socialists would like to see corporations owned collectively by workers as opposed to share holders or a single individual. Fascists want to see workers of minority groups discriminated against and ousted from the workforce by employers, forced to live on the street by landlords, and then sent to die in death camps for homeless people by the federal government.
I recommend Ken Rudin's Political Junky.
https://www.krpoliticaljunkie.com/
Also, Vaush.
https://www.youtube.com/@Vaush
Recommendations aside, I would say in terms of how typical mainstream political parties work, the strategy for all voting blocks is the same. If a voting block wants to drive a typical mainstream political party in their direction on the political spectrum all they need to do is vote for that party. The political party will see that the voting block is voting for them and enact policies that reflect the voting block's political ideology.
Exactly like you said, it's not about an idealist movement towards progressivism, that's exactly why the feedback loop isn't an issue. When certain material goals are met, progressives are satisfied. It's not an endless pit of progressive ideals, it's about actual changes we want to see in Democrat policy. Once those changes are made, we vote Democrat to reinforce good behavior.
A shift to the left means adopting progressive policies. There is more than one progressive policy. As Democrats shift to the left they will adopt some progressive policies. It would take multiple elections for the Democratic Party, currently a center right party, to move to even center left on the political spectrum, let alone left on the political spectrum. Although there are a finite number of progressive policies, it would still take multiple elections for the Democrats to adopt them all.
Democrats will not respond to a feedback loop that involves progressives not voting for them now, to get a more progressive Democratic Party later. Especially when this loop would take multiple elections to adopt all progressive policies. Democrats want to win elections. The Democratic Party is not going to spend even one election cycle, let alone multiple elections cycles, chasing progressive voters who didn't vote blue because those progressive voters didn't get everything they wanted.
The Democratic Party caters to mainstream voters and people who vote for them. Since progressives aren't the former they are going to want to be the latter. Progressives repeatedly turning out for the Democratic Party will cause them to shift to the left, ie adopt progressive policies.
Democrats won't respond to a bunch of uncommitted voters beyond just lip service. The genocide will continue, fiscal conservative austerity politics will continue. The best we'll get is a return to the world of 2015. That's the absolute best case with another Biden term, and even that is unlikely.
I know the genocide isn't a big deal for you or other moderate libs, and you're more concerned with getting America back to its status quo than doing anything that might actually help Palestinians in the future.
The Democratic party caters to power. They want to stay in power. If enough people vote green who previously voted Democrat, they know there's something that moved them that way, and they'll know that some of those voters can be recaptured. You have an incredibly naive and rosey view of bourgoise democracy.
It's not easier to pull a Trump cultist who has been voting Republican for 40 years, over a person who voted Democrat in 2020 and Green in 2024. It's quite easy to reason out, and even if you don't understand this simple fact, Democrats in 2028 will at least, because it's essentially their full time job to maintain power.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/388988/political-ideology-steady-conservatives-moderates-tie.aspx
If progressives won't vote for Democrats, then Democrats will find new voters. The Democrats can move further to the right, stop fighting Republicans on some social issues and capture the moderate voters that make up 22% of the Republican party. This would be much easier than trying to please progressives. The Democratic Party did this before with Clinton in 1992 with economic issues and they will happily do it again in 2028 with social issues.
Progressives have a crucial opportunity in this election to forward a progressive agenda and shift the Democratic Party further to the left. Missing this opportunity and allowing the Democratic party to shift further to the right would set us back decades. The only way for anything to be done to help the Palestinians and enact socialist policies at home is to change the Democratic Party through voting. Progressives engaging in the democratic process is the tried and true method of improving things in this country.
Progressives have to be willing to fight for what they believe in if they want to see change. That means doing the bare minimum of voting blue at the very least. Performative gestures of voting for a third party wont be registered on the Democrats' radar. The Democratic Party is going to see who voted for mainstream political parties in 2024 and plan accordingly for 2026 and 2028. Progressives need to be among those who voted blue in 2024 to see a more progressive Democratic Party in 2028.