this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2024
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Electric Vehicles

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116
Toyota’s chairman doubles down on his electric car skepticism, forecasting that EV adoption will peak at just 30% (fortune.com)
submitted 7 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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Akio Toyoda, Toyota Motor’s chairman, has never been a huge fan of battery electric vehicles. Last October, as global sales of EVs started to slow down amid macroeconomic uncertainty, Toyoda crowed that people are “finally seeing reality” on EVs. Now, the auto executive is doubling down on his bearish forecast, boldly predicting that just three in 10 cars on the road will be powered by a battery.

…

“The enemy is CO2,” Toyoda said, proposing a “multi-pathway approach” that doesn’t rely on any one type of vehicle. “Customers, not regulations or politics” should make the decision on what path to rely on, he said.

The auto executive estimated that around a billion people still live in areas without electricity, which limits the appeal of a battery electric vehicle. Toyoda estimated that fully electric cars will only capture 30% of the market, with the remainder taken up by hybrids or vehicles that use hydrogen technology.

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[–] [email protected] 14 points 7 months ago* (last edited 7 months ago) (1 children)

He's clearly aware of the "magic gas" cheat that allows infinite additional fossil fuel to be harvested from the map.

Edit: Or he's confident that Hydrogen will pick up the slack.

Hindenburg in flames

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 months ago (1 children)

The Hindenburg was coated in thermite.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 7 months ago

Yeah. I don't seriously mean to put down Hydrogen as an important fuel source.

Though I do think it'll have a slow adoption curve because of cultural concerns for safety, and investors and innovators will need to plan to invest for the long term.