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NATO Has Been Underestimating Russia’s War Machine, Estonia Says
(www.bloomberg.com)
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this post was submitted on 25 Jan 2024
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TL;DR: Russia can produce ammunition for trash weapons at great speed, and has vast amounts of untrained meat to throw at the front lines.
Yeah, the real problem isn't sending weapons to Ukraine, it's the problem that occurs when Ukraine runs out of ammo, or people to operate said weapons.
The US (and NATO) has often measured its ability to wage war by spending (in dollars, or percentage of GDP). Spending on single high tech missiles that costs millions are included here. So those numbers look really impressive. But if those missiles aren't being used (because they're too expensive, or we can't risk them being recovered and reverse engineered), and are kept in reserve indefinitely, then what remains is an ammunition gap.
Furthermore, I am of the strong opinion that Ukraine loses, eventually, unless NATO boots are on the ground in Ukraine, and NATO planes are in the air above. It doesn't matter what the exchange ratio of casualties is once the available manpower in Ukraine is low enough. And without air superiority, Russia wins a ground war given enough time.
I realize that NATO boots on the ground constitutes an escalation. So we should do it slowly, like turning up the temperature on the pot of frogs.
Lastly, if we're going to spend so many billions on missiles, they should be ABMs (anti ballistic missiles).
I am but an armchair general, sitting comfy in Canada. I've got a family map of Ukraine here with Melitopol circled that says "grandfather's birthplace" -- my family fled due to Russification 120 years ago. It seems Russia never changes.
Ukraine will lose because Russia has managed to turn up their war time economy to 1000 while the West has given away most of the stockpiles it was willing to commit and has failed to put their money where their mouhts are and actually start a real war economy.
We are giving Ukraine just enoth to not lose at this point. And with Israel taking away the spotlight and adding another nation that is in need of war supplies, Ukraine will run dry eventually.
All the big words of the west on the end will habe been but a lie. And the rest of the world will see this and see it very well, when it comes to who they pick as their allies.