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AI is already well underway, so that's probably the most plausible soonest.
A fully reusable rocket in the form of Starship is also well underway and should be successfully orbiting for the first time soon. Just a matter of a year or two before it's doing workhorse cargo launches probably.
The new round of superconductor possibility might pan out, which would be another one. But that's more of a yes/no outcome that hasn't quite been settled yet, rather than something with a "completion bar."
Ha! A musk promise that's "just a matter of a year or two away..."
Cool story, bro.
The most recent test launch was just a few seconds of engine firing short of reaching orbital velocity, it would have made it if not for an apparent oxygen leak. The next test rocket has been doing static fire tests already, and it has a cargo door and rack capable of launching Starlink V2 satellites so I wouldn't be at all surprised if they send up a few on it.
I doubt that. I'm a big fan of the concept, But SpaceX is behind their promises schedule in a way that would make NASA blush.
Starship launches are becoming less transparent in what they share and information is becoming less frequent. Starship is supposed to land humans on the moon for Artemis III for 4 billion dollars but right now it can't even make orbit without violently exploding for mostly unknown reasons.
The main lesson from launch 1 was that a deluge system is an absolute must, like literally everyone told them, but Musk personally vetoed. Now they have something almost the same, but more complicated because Musk refused to do things on time. And the lessons from launch 2? Who knows, they stopped talking, and analysis of the videos is very hard because SpaceX realized random YouTubers could analyse their failures.
Remember, Elon said we'd have 2 Starships on Mars in 2023.
They've launched a total of two Starship test flights so far, so I'm not sure how you're drawing a meaningful trend line on them becoming "less transparent." We know a lot about IFT-3 already, they've been doing static test fires and the Starship slated for it has a cargo bay capable of launching Starlink V2s.
SpaceX has never been shy about their failures. They've released humorous supercuts of their Falcon 9 landing failures before, and have allowed those Youtubers to place cameras around Starship launches to get views from close enough to be fried by the rocket exhaust. So I'm not sure where you're getting this sense of secrecy from. What other launch companies are so open about their development process?