this post was submitted on 11 Dec 2023
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In full seriousness, beyond posturing and making an ideological statement, how will the Houthi Movement enforce this blockade in any way? They have no navy, no modern anti-ship missiles, no naval Air Force, or any meaningful way to affect shipping in the Red Sea without getting wiped off the face of the Earth by UN anti-piracy naval and air forces in stationed in Djibouti.
They've already been using drones to harass Israeli affiliated ships and even seized one. They don't have to be able to completely stop shipping, just to make it riskier and more expensive to do. That puts direct economic pressure on Israel. There's a good article talking about this in more detail here https://new.thecradle.co/articles-id/14235
Based
But how do they differentiate shipping as to what is Israeli affiliated or not?
There are publicly available databases on ships with pretty detailed information, including their travels. For a fee there are services that provide cargo information as well.
What would stop those services from simply removing the manifests and data of Israeli related ship?
I imagine a certain amount had to be public so the west knows who's ducking sanctions and can prevent import tax evasion, etc.
Edit: meaning it's catch 22. Hide the manifest and not be able to dock anywhere. Or makeb it public and let your enemies know what you're carrying.
Also, it might be the export countries who log the data to show everyone that they're being honest?
No, I just meant remove the manifests from public view.
I am sure that shipping authorities already have that information, they’re not going to random sites for it.
Oh, I see what you mean. It could easily be shared on a need to know basis. I imagine that there's money in it somewhere. Wouldn't be surprised to find that the ports sell the information and the ships can pay like $15/month to l for privacy but want to saveb the cost lol
I don’t know why @ComradeSalad wants to believe Ansar Allah is just three kids in a trenchcoat, incapable of identifying, targeting, or denying corporate shipping vessels from passing through a famously thin & fragile choke point right off their own shores.
It’s likely I think that this has been in their playbook for a years, and the people executing it now have been training for it for who knows how long.
Most of what I hear, it's like Palestine is chaos, which it is, of course. That doesn't mean there aren't Palestinians calmly making decisions. I remember they spoke about a plan to ask their allies for certain types of help when the time's right. We might be seeing that now. I think they've planned for the long haul and I don't think they'll be deterred by Israel's brutality (the opposite, I would believe). It's easy to forget all this when the news is doing war-gore porn 24-7 as if Palestinians are entertainment.
Ships generally have to broadcast a bunch of stuff, like name, from where to where, number of crew etc. constantly while at sea, so all anyone really needs is the ability to receive broadcasts and they can receive those messages and figure out which ships to hit. If a bunch of ships are sending their info but this one isn't you can also assume that that ship is trying to do shifty things so. Besides if they have a lot of people looking at it they can track ships from further away than just right off their coast.
It’s already a logical leap to assume Ansar Allah is using manifest data, before getting to the hypotheticals of shutting down those data services.
I think the a major component of the blockade is that one they begin to capture or burn ships, the insurance rate goes way up. Once the ships become even slightly more costly the margins go down. Once it is even possibly unprofitable to use the straight, they will have effectively created a blockade.
Plus, investors are fickle as anything. The slightest whiff of this isn't safe and it's off. They might take a risk on something with a massive potential profit. But many (most?) ships aren't carrying that kind of thing. That's not the kind of risk that investors don't mind gambling with.
They launched an anti ship missile a few hours ago so clearly they've got something
It missed the US ship they were aiming at by 10 km…
I was talking about the norwegian tanker they hit yesterday
My mistake, there have been a few missile attacks.
Bab el Mandab is a very narrow strait and the Houthis have the ability to strike anywhere in the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea
With what? They have no naval military craft at all, zero. The most they have is drones, though they have been noted to be useful only with harassment engagements.
Also they absolutely do not have free reign over the Arabian and Red seas. That is one of the most high defended areas in the world, with anti piracy operations from UN nations constantly patrolling, destroying, and capturing pirates and smugglers. The Chinese, Americans, Russians, French, and British all have their own naval base and airfield in Djibouti for the express purpose of supporting those operations. Plus air and naval assets from dozens of UN countries.
Bab el Mandab??? You’re kidding right? I’m sure trying to capture or destroy a ship 25 meters away from the combined naval and air assets of nearly 45 countries is going to go well.
As Harun Al-Rashid once said to Niqpur: the answer is what you will see not hear.
Just sit down and watch. Not the first time the Yemenis defeated an empire
That's just an intricate way of saying, "I have no clue, but trust me".
We can only hope, but I am not to optimistic about their chances at all.
You are underestimating the Yemenis. It is the Afghanistan of the Arab world. If the US gets involved there, it will make Iraq seem like a cake walk.
Just consider what they did with one tweet: https://twitter.com/army21ye/status/1728421437570998366
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/zim-container-ship-diverts-as-threat-to-israel-linked-vessels-mounts
The big question is what does Israel do during the hostile takeover of all its major companies when Palestinians use the windfall from hedging against the Israeli economy to buy controlling interests in Israeli companies whose shares plummet in value because Palestine's allies are using topiary to keep that hedge in the shape of a giant keffiyeh?
Still holding the same view now?
What was my view? That I can't tell the future? I was just wary of almost looking like a Ukraine lib and making insane claims about what Ansar Allah could accomplish.
I've been very happy and surprised with the progress that Ansar Allah have made though! I'm a lot more optimistic about their long-term prospects now! It's still very early though, but at least their efforts are making strides!
Cheers comrade. May you always be pleasantly surprised
I look forward to that! Each blow goes a long way!
I just checked the bases on Google Maps. Wild how they aren't blurred lol. I could even count US airplanes there from my lazy couch.
It’s a bit silly because you’ll check out the area surrounding the capital, and it’s just normal farmland, rural areas, and minor infrastructure, then out of nowhere…
CHINESE PEOPLE’S LIBERATION ARMY.
Or a random airport in the middle of the desert that seems inconspicuous enough… then you realize the terminals are lined up with Reaper drones.
Nothing beats scrolling through the same farmland to suddenly seeing PIZZAHUT SUBWAY PLANET SMOOTHIE and you realize you're in a US Air Base.
Don’t forget the two separate bars. And the “small laundry”, and literal shopping mall so that airmen can go shopping after some bombing runs.
The US is a joke.
Also wow, we were talking about two different airports lmao. I think I stumbled across the US drone base further inland. The one by the coast is the major base.
Also love how they leave all those Ospreys out baking in the African sun, then get surprised when they break down.
It is a bit surreal though to look at the pier and see a bunch of US Navy, PLAN, and Russian navy ships all moored next to each other or tied to one another.
they have helicopters, drones, small ships, antiship missiles... They will be fine.
You’re being very liberal with your definition of “helicopters and small ships”, those are small civilian craft. Not Mi24’s and corvettes.
Yet it was enough to capture Galaxy Leader
Watch this Yemeni celebrating the capture of Galaxy Leader: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C0NQr46M4H8/
Note: Galaxy is pronounced Jalaxy in Arabic
That was a pretty impressive operation, though again they had the element of surprise because no one expected the movement to begin raiding ships.
Plus overpowering 25 crew members who all have no combat experience or any weapons is a bit lopsided.
Who will stop them?
The Saudis and Emiratis who spent 6 years losing to them, or Israel that can't defeat Hamas or Hezbollah, or the US who is running out of weapons? The Yemenis want to bait the US-Israel into a losing war with them.
"Israel ready to act against Houthi rebels if international community fails to, national security adviser says" https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/09/middleeast/israel-houthi-yemen-warning-intl-hnk/index.html
The UN defensive force that I referred to earlier. That's the entire point of that task force... to protect shipping in the Red and Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean. They don't need to exterminate the Houthi Movement, they will just more closely keep an eye on shipping as it passes through the strait.
That's already what's been happening, as there have already been news stories of US, French, and Chinese ships downing missiles being fired from Yemen, and air patrols have been increased.
Okay, but what for-profit shipping company would take the risk? How much damage do you think the Yemenis can do to all the world's navies gathered? None at all? Maybe check with USS Cole.
I think the best response here, is to just ask you to watch it play out. You may be surprised.
Yemen has already been able to outright capture two and strike two so far. This isn't a hypothetical, "what will Yemen do", it's what they're already doing.