this post was submitted on 05 Dec 2023
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... the big plan for the near future, our grand strategic vision; a vision shared amongst the thought leaders of the West, is entirely predicated on Chinese people not figuring out how to make computer chips
fr is there a technical reason why they are acting like China can never make this shit?
The whole point of US sanctions is to decouple, i.e. force China out of the world’s market and keep their technology separate from the ones under US control.
China is going to have their own indigenous, perhaps even more advanced technology, but so long as the US control access to the world market, and forcing Chinese technological development to be sufficiently deviated from integration into the rest of the world’s (i.e. US controlled) technology, the US would have achieved their goals.
The perils for China come not from their inability to reinventing the wheel or not catching up with Western technology, it’s that China does not have access to the international market when their manufacturing industrial base is critically geared towards export market.
The major “hinge point” happened back in 2009 during the global financial crisis, when dwindling Western consumption resulted in China’s infrastructure development and the booming of property market instead of reorientating their economy towards internal demand (internal circulation). As such, China now has the capacity of housing 6T people for a population of 1.4T - absolutely nobody is going to buy those properties because there are not going to be enough people to live in there. All the capital flooded into real estate for a quick fix (profit) rather than creating a strong domestic consumer base.
This is why China is undergoing a property market crisis today and it’s going to take them a while to sort this out. But the worse problem is that China’s consumer base is too weak to absorb the loss of international market for high end products. This was something they should have foreseen back in the early 2000s, and failed to correct course from the very beginning.
America's only been partially successful at kicking China out of global markets, and China began correcting their trade a couple years ago. Now trade with Southeast Asia is huge. It is equivalent to or bigger than the EU or US.