technology

America's only been partially successful at kicking China out of global markets, and China began correcting their trade a couple years ago. Now trade with Southeast Asia is huge. It is equivalent to or bigger than the EU or US.

what is "the world market" exactly ? China losing most of europe ,Korea, Phillipines and Japan? Like someone else pointed out Chinese mid and high end exports and intergration with most of SEA is going great and China is starting to dominate the market on digital infastructure in a lot of the devloping world elsewhere. USA has been unable to block the penetration and even domination of Chinese world leading mid-high tech exports in some of the worlds most important markets

For example ASEAN leads the world in growth and wants to repeat an “Asian Tigers” like development and China’s leading position in digital and physical infrastructure creates a natural economic partnership with them . Already in 2020, China exported almost twice as much to ASEAN as it did to developed Asia (Japan, Taiwan and South Korea). Chinese exports to the Global South, including ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, nearly doubled from pre-Covid levels to an annual rate of around $900 billion in 2022 – double China’s exports to either the United States or the European Union.According to the IMF, the region’s per capital GDP in terms of purchasing power parity is $16,163, or nearly three times the USD dollar GDP per capita. The purchasing power of foreign currency in local economies is multiplied by the undervaluation of the region’s currencies. As the US dollar value of GDP converges with purchasing power parity over time and these countries grow, the import capacity of that 700 million people will rise to match western markets even in demand for high tech products . No reason to believe Chinese high tech exports and digital infastructure will not continue to rise even more.

From an ASEAN study published last year:

As ASEAN advances to become the world’s fourth largest economy by 2030, it is undergoing a transition marked by a demographic shift to a younger population, a rising middle class, and rapid adoption of technology. With many mobile-first markets in the region, ASEAN is expected to see rapid increase in the use of technology which would contribute to the growth of its digital economy by 6.4 times, from $31 billion in 2015 to $197 billion by 2025. The digital economy, therefore, is a key factor driving the growth of the region’s economy.

China is already a world leader in practical applications of digital infrastructure (AI/5G) and their strategy centers on creating future markets for its high end products by providing broadband, cloud computing, and training for Southeast Asian nations and in those aspects it already dominates the 700m people market with deals being signed left and right no matter US disagreements. .

According to a July 2022 report by the Carnegie Endowment on Huawei’s success in Indonesia, by far the largest ASEAN nation with a population of 275 million:

Huawei and, to a lesser extent, ZTE have successfully positioned themselves as trusted cybersecurity providers to the Indonesian government and the Indonesian nation. This has been no easy feat given long-held Indonesian animosity toward China. Many Chinese companies have faced protests over concerns they were taking local jobs. Huawei and ZTE have suffered no such fate. Nor has there been a broad coalition of Indonesian voices against using Chinese technology in critical telecommunications infrastructure. In short, Indonesians care a lot more about Chinese cement plants than they do about Huawei involvement in 5G networks.

Huawei teamed up with Thailand’s Ministry of Digital Economy to open a “Thailand 5G Ecosystem Innovation Center” in Bangkok in 2021, the director of Thailand’s digital development office told a Huawei conference in 2021. In October 2022, Huawei released a white paper entitled “Malaysia as the ASEAN Digital Capital.” And all these were for a Huawei in their weakest. They are booming again in 2023 and so are a lot of Chinese tech giants and sectors. Like electric cars. Already bound to dominate in SEA you see them capturing markets just in the US doorstep

Even if you wanna hyper focus on chip exports. China already has a great shot in dominating mid and low end chip production and exports everywhere within the next decade and there is little real ability or plan from the west to counterbalance that legacy chip domination. How will that coexist as a reality with them being completely cut off fin the high end sector when they reach parity. I dont think it can .

Good article on the subject in Chinese https://www.guancha.cn/ChenFeng3/2023_02_14_679722_s.shtml

when you say deviate what do you mean? Their chips will be incompatible with our tech? What would be the barrier to making chips that are compatible?