NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.
Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.
Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.
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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.
These are all realities of our economy in general and are unrelated to inflation! I'm not saying everything is rosy. Like our economy in 2019 was perfect. I'm pointing out purchasing power on average is the same before the pandemic as it is now, on average. So if you're dissatisfied it's not inflation. I'm trying to get people to move past this whole all our problems are from inflation thing. Which is just not supported by any data. How about we talk about income inequality? How about we talk about tying our Healthcare to our job? How about we talk about half of all companies flagrantly breaking laws and union busting during labor union negotiations? How about we talk about the insane concentration of wealth and inability of our tax system to deal with this investor class, leading to high deficits that can't cover very necessary social services?
These are all important problems you've brought up. None are to do with inflation being out of control. And these lazy sensationalist media stories with out of context numbers where "eggs expensive, wow," is just distracting from issues that actually are still plaguing us! By design or laziness I do not know.