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Economists predict US inflation will keep cooling and the economy can avoid a recession (apnews.com)
submitted 2 years ago* by to c/news@lemmy.world
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NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.

Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.

Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.

…

High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.

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[–] 28 points 2 years ago (7 children)

Does this mean rent will get easier to pay, or am I still boned?

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  • [+] [S] 37 points 2 years ago (26 children)
    [deleted]
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  • [–] 27 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Well, fuck.

    And of course wages aren’t going to take a leap forward either.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 years ago* (3 children)

    Wages are growing on average, and faster than inflation (5.2% wage growth vs 3.2% inflation year over year for the past year). Takes two seconds to Google.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/

    Somewhat remarkably considering the problems with income inequality in the US, wages are growing the fastest of all among people with lower incomes (though all the wage increases in the world aren't gonna tackle the problem of the power of the 0.1% investor class of wealth hoarders).

    https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2022/

    https://www.marketplace.org/2023/03/08/lower-income-earners-wages-have-grown-faster-than-others/

    It's pretty expected to given the persistent low unemployment and a high labor demand.

    Not saying there's no concerns at all in the entire economy or anything crazy. But you don't have to spread disinformation like wages aren't growing.

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    [–] 19 points 2 years ago (4 children)

    Every economists was predicting recession a few months back. They have an accuracy rate less than horoscopes

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  • [–] 2 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    This isn't even remotely true, why is it being upvoted?

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  • [–] 4 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Maybe because it is true and no one wants to hear government economists bullshit about how everything is fine when everything is not fucking fine.

    So sick of economist lying crap. Telling us we can't have universal healthcare and we can't get rid of student loan debt but we have to give free money to banks and trade with countries that have slavery.

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  • [–] 3 points 2 years ago (6 children)

    But it's simply untrue.

    Here is goldman sachs saying, over a year ago, that a path to a soft landing is hard but feasible. Here is an economist, from over a year ago, predicting that the chance of a soft landing was going up. Here are 3 economists writing for the Harvard business reviewing saying, back in Februrary, that the chances of a soft landing were good and calls for a recession were premature.

    The whole point of the fed's policy on the rates was to tamp down on inflation while at the same time avoiding a recession. They are, of course, economists. At this point we look like we have good odds to pull of what they were intending to pull off.

    I don't know where you get your information from, but if you thought no one thought was predicting a soft landing until a few months ago, well it's safe to say you don't really pay much attention to these things because plenty of economists have been predicting it likely, or going to happen, even for a long time. I've only heard a handful of economists even come close to virtually assuring a recession.

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    [–] 18 points 2 years ago* (last edited 2 years ago)

    It should be clearly stated that recession is a technical term with a specific meaning, not a general term for a rough economy. Not all tough economic times are recessions. It is not at all a contradiction for lots of people to be struggling and for a recession to not be happening. This is not economists saying that everything is hunky dory and that people have no reason to complain, only that the specific phenomenon that is a recession is not occurring right now.

    Edit: Just to put it explicitly, a recession is generally defined as two or more successive quarters in which GDP contracts rather than growing.

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    [–] 14 points 2 years ago (3 children)

    I am unemployed and have been for many months. I have never had issues finding a job, but finding one lately has been impossible. I know of 3 others in the same boat as I. I think that a recession is inevitable at this point. Lucky for me, I have other sources of income. I did have to drastically cut back spending, however.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    There is definitely something going on lately. I'm always looking for better jobs on indeed, professional recruiting services etc, trying to improve my situation.

    In the last 4 months its been seemingly impossible to even get a response, and I know I'm more than qualified for these positions I'm applying to, and I've never had an issue before, even during severe economic downturns.

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    [–] 12 points 2 years ago (4 children)

    Here's my gripe with economists. Even if this wasn't true, wouldn't be in the best interest of the economy to lie about it so the market doesn't get spooked and end up doing things that would make inflation worse?

    What other 'science' has that nifty feature in it?

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  • [–] 4 points 2 years ago

    You can make money on the economy going up or down, so there's generally economists predicting both. There's also a lot of economists that love to be the one to predict a recession, so they pretty much always predict one.

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  • [–] 2 points 2 years ago

    Regular medical science, it is called the placebo effect. It only works a bit. Not like you are going to regrow a limb, more like if you had a 40% of getting better on your own you now have a 50%.

    Truth is economists can't predict shit and recessions happen based on numbers not based on feelings. We can't click our heels together and wish our way to a better world.

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    [–] 10 points 2 years ago (1 child)

    Economists predict that now that the rich and ruling class have had a chance to get even rocher even faster, the rest of us will be allowed to catch our breaths just long enough to avoid sweeping reforms and revolutions the next time they pull this bullshit!

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    • [–] 9 points 2 years ago (2 children)

    Wow we went through nearly 3 years of recession start tomorrow and now it's not even going to happen. Even weather reporters are better.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 years ago

    Weather doesnt read the weather report and change itself in response.

    People read economics reports and spend differently in response.

    Start giving the northern wind a newspaper, and you will see the weather report falter.

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  • [–] 4 points 2 years ago (15 children)

    Plenty of economists have been saying that avoiding a significant recession has been entirely possible. A recession is generally defined by at least two successive quarters of GDP decline, and while this did technically happen in 2022, the second quarter was only -0.6%, and the following quarter was back up to +2.7%.

    It really needs to be stressed that not all bad economic circumstances are recessions. That's a very specific thing.

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    • [–] 4 points 2 years ago

    The poor and middle class are sowing, the rich are reaping

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    [–] 4 points 2 years ago

    Just in time for a tumultuous election

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