NEW YORK (AP) — Most business economists think the U.S. economy could avoid a recession next year, even if the job market ends up weakening under the weight of high interest rates, according to a survey released Monday.
Only 24% of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics said they see a recession in 2024 as more likely than not. The 38 surveyed economists come from such organizations as Morgan Stanley, the University of Arkansas and Nationwide.
Such predictions imply the belief that the Federal Reserve can pull off the delicate balancing act of slowing the economy just enough through high interest rates to get inflation under control, without snuffing out its growth completely.
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High rates work to slow inflation by making borrowing more expensive and hurting prices for stocks and other investments. The combination typically slows spending and starves inflation of its fuel. So far, the job market has remained remarkably solid despite high interest rates, and the unemployment rate sat at a low 3.9% in October.
Where did I call it a victory? Maybe a very slight relative victory compared to the disastrous real wage loss that occured during inflation flights in the 1970s and 1980s and never really recovered until the 2010's. I'm calling it a distraction from actual problems at this point.
Also it's average wage growth across the whole country, people make more money as they advance in their careers. So average real wages across the entire economy remaining constant doesn't literally mean individuals have not advanced in their own personal financial situation. It's disingenuous to represent it that way.