As much as there is plenty of new people joining the threadiverse, the real wave starts today, with thousands of subreddits going dark.
Existing Lemmy/Kbin instances get hammered with new user registrations and deploy different coping strategies. Some plead, some close registrations. New instances spring up.
Soon, mainstream media will discover Lemmy exists. They will probably miss Kbin entirely, and most will also be very confused about the federated nature of Lemmy. Some might be able to remember Fediverse exists.
When Kbin finally shows up on their radar, they will find it difficult to explain how it fits into the narrative they already spun. My money is on someone calling it a "fork" of Lemmy. 🤣
Eventually, as more instances start turning off registrations, and as some buckle under the load temporarily, the narrative becomes "this is why Lemmy will fail." Threadiverse will get treated like a VC-funded walled garden. Media will be flabberghasted at how "poorly" Lemmy and Kbin were able to "capture" the people wanting to migrate off of Reddit. They will complain endlessly about how hard it is to choose an instance, "confusing interface", and ask "thoughtful" questions on "how will they monetize".
Eventually, the wave subsides. Maybe Reddit reverses their silly ideas, maybe people get tired. There is a drop in active user accounts on the Threadiverse, compared to the peak of the wave, which is then taken as "proof positive" that Lemmy and Kbin could never "succeed".
What they will ignore, of course, is that by then Threadiverse is several times bigger and more active than before all the Reddit insanity. Communities stay active, people stay active, and slowly Threadiverse grows, as (just like the broader Fediverse) it is not a VC-funded startup that needs a hokey-stick growth.
It's a long-term project of making community-run platforms work. And that takes time, and effort, and love.
I don't think Reddit will lose enough users to seriously consider backing down. But I expect the quality to degrade further, and I think this might start the slow descend of Reddit. I'm not sure if Lemmy, Kbin or Tiles will be the successors. I like Lemmy so far, but it was a journey.
That's kind of a moot point, since as long as they can federate with each other it doesn't matter what software an individual instance runs.
Fair, but now what I meant. I didn't mean one of them will be the successor. I mean I don't know if any of them will be.
It's okay to not be a successor. In fact, I know one of those you mentioned actively rejects being treated as a Reddit alternative.
The important thing is they exist and have a sizeable footprint where people could choose to spend their online presence and contribute. This makes Reddit less of a monopoly and erodes its hold on users.
I do not want another Reddit. Seeing how bad it became. I want a community with its own flavor that is distinct from Reddit. That way, however, I might feel or whatever my mood is for that time of day. I could choose where and what culture to interact with. These instances and new forum give me the power of choice that Reddit has tried so hard to withhold from us.