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Should Democrats be concerned about the possibility of Trump winning? Yes. Anyone who didn't learn from 2016 is an imbecile.
That said, polls a year before the election-and therefore a year before we plaster the airwaves with a billion $+ in advertising, before Trump is a convicted felon, aren't worth much. We also should have learned from the "RED WAVE!!1!" fantasies of 2022.
Just to add, there might be plenty of voters on the left that are willing to say "there's no way I'm voting for Biden" in a poll a year from the election.
When they get to the voting booth and see Biden or Trump, though, many will vote for Biden even if they need to hold their noses.
Now, if we're seeing these polls in September of next year, then I'll start getting worried.
I feel like that's what people thought in 2016 with Trump and Clinton. People need something to believe in, even if it's not much.
"I'm going to vote third party" is a common phrase this far out. Much fewer actually wind up voting third party.
That being said, we need to get rid of First Past The Post and go with Ranked Choice or Approval Voting to remove the spoiler effect.
I, personally, prefer Ranked Choice, but I think the public would understand Approval Voting more readily. It's basically similar to "liking" on social media. You "like" the politicians you would want to see in office. Whoever gets the most "likes" wins.
Either of those would be a big improvement. Totally unlikely, though. The status quo depends on the unrepresentative way of voting.
ranked-choice or any other alternative ballot scheme would confuse tf out of the american electorate. many are literally too stupid to grasp the concepts thanks to the tanking of the public education system the last few decades.
"Vote for every candidate you think is ok" isn't exactly complicated.
Yeah there’s even videos on YouTube that break it down really well and go in-depth while keeping it at a 5th grade reading level and under 3 minutes.
I could definitely see ranked-choice being intentionally over-complicated in writing if someone wanted to undermine it, but with enough people/sources sharing simple video resources on it, it’s a method that could be easily understood and adopted by the public.
the democratic party should abandon the "hold their noses" strategy because it doesn't work very well
This is an incredibly important point. Rupert knows why, but the media want you to believe that Trump is far more popular than he actually is. They are invested in the drama, which drives engagement. They should be focused on the fact that he's embroiled in a RIDICULOUS number of court cases and how no one should be taking him seriously as a function of that. If that was the message they were repeating 24/7, his polling would be at 25%.