this post was submitted on 04 Jul 2023
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They could realistically have kept Sevastopol and the rest of Crimea if they just hadn't invaded the rest of Ukraine; now it's all at stake.
But even so, if they lose Sevastopol, there are other Russian ports along the Black Sea, notably Novorossiysk. While that's much less strategically located, and costly upgrades would be required to function as a marine base, it's not strictly true that they would lose access to the Black Sea altogether.
Apologies in advance if this is hopelessly armchair, happy to have my amateur observations nuanced.