this post was submitted on 19 Sep 2023
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[Dormant] Electric Vehicles
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Given how outrageously expensive BEVs are, it makes sense to not require them anytime soon. One would simply be pricing the lower classes out of a vehicle.
If nobody could afford to buy a car because of this, what do you think would happen? A) The economy would grind to a halt as nobody could get to work anymore without a gas car or B) The auto manufacturers would miraculously figure out a way to sell cars at a profit for cheaper just in time?
I would expect the government to delay the implementation of the requirement, just like we see in this thread.
I know what you're saying but the plan is to ban new sales of internal combustion cars from 2030, so you'll be able to buy second hand ice cars until a good 20 years after that. Seems ok to me?
The higher prices filter into the used market. A used Model 3 costs more than a used Corolla. Go check your local listiings.
Climate policy is important, but you cannot just price people out of necessary items like transportation.
There are new electric cars that are $15,000 cheaper than the model 3. I'm so sick of people looking at electric cars and picking the $50,000+ models as if they were representative of the whole EV market, just pretending the $36,000 models aren't already real.
What BEV is cheaper than the same speced ICE? They are universally more expensive, which carries into the used market. Get the price of BEVs down and you won't have to worry about pricing the lower classes out of a used car in the future by killing the production of inexpensive cars.
Those prices will go down with time, like in about 7 years.
Second hand ice cars will still be available. The idea is by the time they aren't, BEV has come down.
No one woul get priced out mate. You don't think that employers or the government would foot the bill if it came to it? Employers need money and employees. Governments need money and employers. They wouldn't just let the nation fall apart. Sure, your current paradigm leading to a known apocalypse would have to change, but this would be the catalyst.
People would have to start taking public transit to work. Or biking. Or God forbid walking. Things need to change, and this pussyfooting policy of "Oooooh, we can't change toooo fast and make people uncooooomfortable" bullshit needs to stop.
Some older BEVs are just entering the range of affordable. But more importantly, the more new BEVs are bought, the more there will be coming onto the second hand market in 5, 10. 20 years' time.
The market would enter that space, if you have to buy something they want it to be theirs. There is literally no point in making something you cannot afford, I get what you're saying there are some stupid policies surrounding EV take up but if everyone had to have one in 5 years there would be a range available for every level.
Given that we don’t have the lithium production for that many batteries and we aren’t ramping up fast enough to support 100% car demand with BEVs in just a few years, no, they would not be magically cheaper.
But it wouldn't be immediate even if was legislated, there is a timeline and all the manufacturers in the world would be competing to get in. Not every single car would change, some people will drive theirs into the ground and not everyone will buy new and some will make the decision not to buy at all. It's alarmist to just say that it's impossible when there are steps being made every day to make it a reality.
Correct, just the new cars. And we don't have enough lithium for all new cars to be BEVs in the next several years. We are upping lithium processing, but it isn't fast enough for that aggressive of a timeline.
And that is why most EV manufacturers are creating batteries that don't require lithium and other heavy metals.
We are ramping up though. There are something like 50 new battery factories under construction in Europe alone. The US has ~30 going up as well.
But they have actual cheap EVs in Europe, unlike the US. Like the Dacia spring and other Chinese imports.
Nobody's banning the sale of secondhand ICE cars, they would have still been sold as new up to the end of 29, so there would be a good supply of used cars for more than a decade post that.
Second hand EV prices have been returning to more normal prices in the UK, and I would expect that downward trend to continue as we see greater availability on the secondhand market. Cars that were 10k last year can be had for almost half that this year.
Finance in the UK of new (and nearly new) cars is heavily dependent on lease style agreements with the total cost massively offset by future value (thus EVs had been fantastic value new on finance) and the liability held by the car finance company. At the moment they had been trying to hold used prices to offset that liability, it hasn't been working very well with dealers left with cars they can't sell without losing big time.