A reminder that as the US continues to threaten countries around the world, fedposting is to be very much avoided (even with qualifiers like "in Minecraft") and comments containing it will be removed.

Image is of Iran's President, Pezeshkian, holding up an image mid-speech at the UN memorializing the girls and teachers killed by an American missile strike on the Minab school.


My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.

preambleThe two big international events of the last week have been the UN summit in New York, where Pezeshkian among many others gave various speeches, and the visit by Xi Jinping and various Chinese figures to the US. While it's important to never fully discount the wider diplomatic angle of the conflicts raging around the world, by this point it should be clear to most people that the fundamental disagreements are too acute to be solved or even ameliorated with words, and there are no countries in the "international community" to "convince" to come over to your side through expert oratory and rhetoric. There is now only the language of explosives, blockades, and sanctions. Pezeshkian in particular gave a reasonably good speech, but I still believe that personally flying to the country that has committed so many crimes against his own country and its allies was not the correct move, and should have been left to Araghchi. And the difference between the US's and China's material interests are separated by too wide a canyon to be bridged by words promising cooperation and partnership.

Over in Yemen, the Saudis have intensified airstrikes on Ansarallah, which continues to make slow but steady territorial gains, particularly around Taizz, and have also repelled Saudi assaults from the north. These Saudi airstrikes have hit some military infrastructure, but also a lot of civilian infrastructure, including explicitly humanitarian buildings like those supplying food. To me, this doesn't seem strategically or tactically effective, especially with so much of your own oil infrastructure in ballistic missile range, but I suppose there's not many options left for the Saudi regime. Meanwhile, the situation in Hormuz flared up on the weekend, with a record(?) number of missiles fired at ships trying to traverse the Omani route. In related news, there's been a recent tick up in sailor and marine casualties admitted by the US, indicating either that Iran scored a significant hit on a US naval vessel during its anti-ship ballistic missile strikes (and those ships have now retreated much further away, which is a data point in favour of that hypothesis, but otherwise we have no visual evidence), or that US military personnel are taking a major role in attempting to move oil through Iran's blockade by manning at least some of the tankers.

Claims that oil transits out of the Middle East have returned almost to normalcy can be trivially contradicted by third grade mathematics and the evidence of our senses: namely, increasing worldwide shortages and growing considerations for rationing diesel and other such oil products. Indeed, the potential for shortages has now risen to the extent that Trump briefly suggested an diesel export ban. However, I'll admit that the situation in Hormuz has become much harder to follow for everybody involved than it was in March and April. Nowadays, some vessels are moving through Iran's prearranged passage, there is undeniably quite a bit of oil getting out through ports that don't need to go through Hormuz like Fujairah, and meanwhile, there are theories and rumors of widely varying degrees of dubiousness of temporary arrangements of Iran not firing on vessels traversing the Omani route in exchange for such-and-such hypothetical benefits, perhaps even including Iranian oil getting mixed into some of the vessels. And on top of all of that, you have to take into account China's curious moves in the oil markets, which have substantially influenced supplies and prices since March.

In that environment, it's hard not to have at least an iota of sympathy for the tanker trackers of the world who are trying to get some concrete information while everybody makes unsupported claims. The aforementioned intensified Iranian strikes on the Omani route are a data point in favour of ships getting through when they shouldn't - otherwise, they'd have nothing to be striking, unless they're just providing enrichment and employment to any divers trying to disarm naval mines - and so we'll just have to see whether Iran will allow the current situation of a slightly leaky Hormuz to continue for reasons unknown to us, or now truly drop the hammer on illegal strait transits to put pressure on the US. The other big new item lately around Iran has been some of their airlines being sanctioned, which several countries in the region seem to be obeying, while others around the world, like China, aren't intimidated. This been of particular significance in regards to Iraq, where there have been major protests about reopening flights between Iran and Iraq, and we'll have to see where that goes next.

Perhaps little of major significance will occur in the war until the midterms are over. Nothing I've seen so far indicates to me that Democrats will put up a serious opposition to Trump's war efforts except in very particular and isolated cases, and so from a purely non-domestic, geopolitical perspective, I expect the midterm results to change nothing. Political "gridlock" and "lame duck periods" exist as illusory excuses for the general population to prevent positive things from occurring domestically; they are not hurdles that exist in reality when the American bourgeoisie all agree on a course of action, such as attempting (now in vain) to stop Iran, Russia, and China. Slightly more interesting will be the results of the Zionist elections, but only slightly. On the one hand, it would be satisfying to see the current party lose power, but on the other, it has been their sheer incompetence that has, over just a few years, led the occupation into the greatest crisis of their short history. Nothing about their domestic or foreign policy seems likely to change, as they have dug themselves too deep into the hole now. Also coming up is the Brazilian elections, where Lula is once again facing off against another Bolsonaro. I wish him the best, but I worry that the margin of victory for a non-comprador party outside the West now needs to be pretty damn high to overcome foreign voter suppression efforts and accusations of election fraud by pro-US organizations, and the current margins in the polls are not terribly encouraging by that measure.


Last week's thread is here.

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The bulletins site is here. Currently not used.
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The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine

If you have evidence of Zionist crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA reports on the Zionists' destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] 81 points 3 weeks ago* (16 children)

Alright I hadn't posted about this here yet because I wasn't really sure it was going to get super serious but it is. Not long ago a court ruled that Orange Order could march down Gavaghy Road in Northern Ireland, they've not been allowed to do this for 28 years because in the past it caused so much trouble that it had repercussion across the entirety of both sides of the border.

The road has been blockaded by residents for days now. Orange Order are camped up the road by the church saying they don't care how long it takes, "3 days or 28 days doesn't matter". Police are permanently present. Residents are permanently blockading it. Gerry Adams is now camped up with the residents.

https://www.tiktok.com/@the_irish_news/video/7690136555746299169

https://www.tiktok.com/@aodhanroberts/video/7690167501250006295

https://www.tiktok.com/@irelandtiktok2/video/7690231658481487126

Things may actually kick off eventually and it's going to be very ira if it does.

BBC's latest slop on the topic but it's biased as fuck and continues to mislead by highlighting it as a protestant vs catholic thing rather than a loyalist vs republican issue.

Anyone know if there's a site that can do tiktok like xcancel just for people to view it without logging in?

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  • [–] 44 points 3 weeks ago* (4 children)

    I actually think the situation is fairly under control now. The 35 orange men have dwindled to about 12. The Garvaghy road protesters are pretty well organised and the PSNI seem to be very content to cash the overtime and wait for one side to give up. Chris Bryant, the colonial governor, seems to be trying very very hard to find different ways to say and do nothing, presumably stalling for time until he can find Northern Ireland on a map. While alot of the upper management of the PSNI are part of the RUC good ol' boys club, and thats probably why they gave a completely bogus assessment of the situation that allowed this to happen in the first place, I think the incredibly strong reaction and attention has made their self-preservation instincts kick in. This is of course the classic strategy whenever news from the original british colony breaks containment, which is to wait a few days until the rest of the UK forgets we exist again.

    The main issue is that if the assembly falls apart yet again they have been threatened with a return to direct rule. Supposedly with joint rule by the Irish and English governments, which quite frankly would be a nightmare to deal with, and I honestly cant see it happening. Have to wait and see.

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  • [–] 18 points 3 weeks ago

    The main issue is that if the assembly falls apart yet again they have been threatened with a return to direct rule. Supposedly with joint rule by the Irish and English governments

    i mean this sounds workable as hell

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  • [–] 10 points 3 weeks ago

    I actually think the situation is fairly under control now. The 35 orange men have dwindled to about 12.

    They won't stop trying. Situation needs to return to the former status quo with a ban or eventually someone's getting hurt when attempts are made. Easiest way to cool it.

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  • [–] 24 points 3 weeks ago

    They’ll never allow the unification referendum to go through. I’ve seen a curious rise of “Scotland nationalism bashing” in the last year. Like pointing out that Scotland shared in the British Empire’s crime (true, but still the UK should cease to exist). No doubt MI6 has learned form Hasbara.

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  • [–] 21 points 3 weeks ago (6 children)

    Who are the good guys and the bad guys in this (if applicable)?

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  • [–] 29 points 3 weeks ago (1 child)

    The Correct Internationalist Position is "Republicanism" in contrast to "Unionism"

    I believe from context that the orange guys are unionists

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  • [–] 9 points 3 weeks ago

    Correct. Orange in these contexts generally refers to northern ireland protestants (in reference to King William of orange, who defeated King James, thus ensuring protestant control of the British monarchy). The orange order, however, is a viciously anti Catholic unionist formation (they expell people for attending any Catholic religious service, including a funeral, wedding etc, and like to march through Catholic neighborhoods to deliberately cause violence) principally dedicated to preserving British and protestant hegemony in the north of ireland and in Scotland

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