I don't really agree with the balkanization thought you have. I think that's super complicated and who knows.
Yeah its definitely a bit of a stretch, but fun to speculate on. I pick up on it cause the US isnt a real "nation", it's only fueled by white supremacy and settler/imperial dominance. There aren't many places to dominate, and the primary "culture" that binds the people is capitalist consumption (which more isolating than binding. The economic bonds are strong though, I dont really see them unravelling very easily (which is why the best-case would be a EU-type beat).
Idk but thanks for letting me yap a bit comrade.