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this post was submitted on 06 Aug 2026
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I think they buried the real lede here:
That we're in a positive environment for the Democrats is a kinda "no-duh" situation. The out-party is usually favored during mid-term elections. There are also some well known economic issues which are working against the GOP (see: gas prices). So, we'd expect the Democrats to have an advantage. But that shift in trust of which party is better for the economy would mark a major sea change in opinion, if it sticks. As dumb as it may be, the American public has a habit of responding that they trust Republicans more on the economy than they trust the Democrats. If that changes, the Republicans would lose one of their major pillars of support.
That said, I'm not sure I'd put all that much stock in polling yet. Americans have a habit of not really paying attention to politics until very late. The common wisdom being that most people aren't paying attention until after Labor Day. Those of us subscribed to a community named "politics" are likely the exception and not the norm. So, polls and averages showing a D+6 environment are nice, but not all that useful yet. And things are likely to shift quite a bit before the actual midterms. Also, three months is a lot of time for Trump to do more stupid stuff or get stupidly lucky. We could be even more bogged down in the Iran quagmire or a deal could be struck which extricates the US, re-opens the Strait and brings down gas prices.
All that to say that, this is interesting as a quick check on where things seem to be right now, but it's probably not that predictive of where things will be in three months.