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AI is a bubble, just like dot-com
(www.constraintlab.com)
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this post was submitted on 05 Aug 2026
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Before others comment about the bubble part and overvaluation of AI and its impending pop, I would point out to read the article. And while you may still agree with it, it does lay out what exactly it means to be like the dot-com bubble.
The dot-com boom was both something that changed the world forever as-well-as a bubble. AI isn't going away and we are only seeing it in its mainstream/commercialization infancy. While it is currently seen as a bubble, over-hyped, and currently over-valued -when the bubble pops it will only reorganize into a market efficient model, not go away. Just like the dot-com bubble and the internet.
What's this, a reasonable take on AI!?
So, are you saying that the Internet actually became more useful and prevalent after the dot-com bubble?
What about "stochastic probabilistic", "no more training data" and "AI has hit a wall"?
They're in the same memory hole as "model collapse" -- remember 2 years ago when AI was fucked because models trained on model output are destined to 'collapse' and go stupid?
Well lots and lots of really really smart people were highly incentivized to fix that. They did a lot of very clever vector calculus and now all the models are pre-trained on model-generated "synthetic data" along with most of the Internet.
It's like the Pandemic Facebook PhD's all over again. Except this time it's in data science instead of virology.
Yeah, I remember.
Remember when LLMs could never be expected to do mathematics or when context limit could never exceed a few thousand tokens because of the kv-cache?
Also art AIs would never get hands right.
The funny thing is pets.com and WebVan were way ahead of their time. But who sells groceries and pet food online? ...Amazon. the fucking bookstore does.
No one could have guessed that's how things would have turned out, however, it is clear that people follow the hype and forget how to run a business and make profit. Amazon was doing it fine, others weren't.
I am guessing Nvidia will still be around and OpenAI might collapse. They talk about being profitable "next year" every year. They are burning investor cash. Nvidia has been a solid company since before and will be after.
Anthropic, I don't know. But these companies so many people see as the top of the food chain probably aren't.