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Ukraine
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Writing this as I'm watching, there are 16+ videos just of Russian cities that still have long lines for gas after this problem was officially "solved". About 28 minutes in.
This shows some of the visible results of failing maintenance in places that don't usually get any coverage.
Russia is surely collapsing or falling apart or whatever you want to call this. Or rather it has been for a while now.
Some of these things did not happen in just 6 months, it is at least a couple of years of zero maintenance, even in Russian cities that are considered relatively rich.
From what I know, it was solved for Moscow and Saint-Petersburg. Everywhere else is a disaster.
Wishful thinking. Russian economy is hell, leadership is satanic, but Russia is not going anywhere anytime soon.
You are right they can continue for a long time yet, but their economy will already take years to recover, even if the war ends today.