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this post was submitted on 08 Jul 2026
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I've noticed. Although fuel prices are close to being back to normal, so I don't think they have that much leverage any more.
Still, eventually one side will decide they've had enough, surely?
Time is on Iran's side because the world's reserves are running out, although to your point, the world did pivot much more gracefully than they anticipated.
Because most people didn't anticipate China spending the last 20 odd years getting ready for USA to mess with the global oil market right before renewables take off. Now since the war renewables have taken off at a rate much higher than before the war.
This is going to be one of the more interesting aspect of the next 5 years that isn’t necessarily nightmare inducing. It’ll take a while to really see but destabilizing the overall energy market will hopefully make oil a less insane commodity that the world order revolves around. Which gives the providers of that commodity inordinate amounts of power
And while their shift into renewable energy tech certainly gives them a strong leg up in terms of gaining some of that power and influence for themselves the big difference is that they are simply providing the tools to extract the energy rather than the energy itself. Which is amazing for humans as a whole because it deconsolidates that power and prevents this sort of shortage agains
What worries me is that those at the levels of power, including those in China, will realize this and start building in obsolescence and control to keep ahold of as much as they can rather than allow actual energy independence. But fingers crossed for something good in the future
The oil reserves have been emptied right before the ceasefire but not replenished. Your fuel prices are going to look very funny very soon. As well as fertilizer and other critical goods.
Time will tell, I guess. But fuel costs have been steadily dropping since the war started.
Do you mean since the "ceasefire" started or since the war started? Certainly not the second.
Oil prices heavily dropped a few days before the ceasefire because everyone is trading with inside info. But in the end stocks is just paper value. Real oil is going to run out.
Nah, even before the ceasefire they were down from their peak, they definitely dropped a lot more after the ceasefire though.
Most of the drop happened right before the ceasefire. A little was left after it happened from all the bagholders.